BTCUSD - The Binary Set of Possible Futures for Bitcoin

2024年9月30日

Bitcoin priced in dollars will eventually go to infinity or to zero.

This chart is a more precise model of an idea I've been toying with for a few months. It fits the past price cycles extremely accurately, if we are willing to disregard the lower end of the Covid crash wick and stick to monthly closes. It also predicts the binary set of possible futures for Bitcoin in an extremely elegant way.

According to this model, regardless of which path Bitcoin price takes after this cycle, we will see a top around $111,800 around spring 2025 - April 2025 if it hits the nadir of the arch exactly.

We will have a strong clue about which of the two futures (infinity or zero) Bitcoin is headed towards when we see whether it bottoms near $16,000 (Bitcoin to Zero) or bottoms near $24,000 (Bitcoin to Infinity) next bear market.

The model predicts hyperinflation of the dollar in 2037 on the "Bitcoin infinity path," or alternatively Bitcoin to digital trash in 2036 on the "Bitcoin zero path."

7月1日

交易結束：目標達成

So far, this model - drawn 10 months ago - has proven perfectly accurate.

It predicted the $112,000 top, including the timing, almost exactly.
That was done when the price was still below $60K.

Now, many crypto influencers on social media are predicting a "Huge July 2025!" for Bitcoin and crypto, and talking about $250K BTC this year.

Beware. These repeated claims with flimsy reasoning behind them are the telltale sign of a liquidity grab. This is a warning signal that we have already topped for this cycle. I have already sold off everything I needed to upgrade my lifestyle until we understand with more certainty where the market is going next.

Let's watch if this model holds. If next is a crash beyond anyone's worst nightmare as it predicts, we will get to see which bottom holds - the green future or the red future for our beloved Bitcoin. Good luck!