Since my last analysis on Bitcoin, price has continued to stay at the highs, and has been incredibly stubborn at this level! Price did not only hold out at this level, but it has also been trading in an incredibly tight consolidation zone for the time being. Since the up move was originally so strong, it would have been expected that a correction would have taken place already. the question is, is Bitcoin staying at the highs because over excited retail traders/public are still buying expecting further upside, or is the price stubbornness due to legitimate sustained bullish pressure at the highs by bigger money/whales? This is what we will try to figure out today with this analysis. You will notice in this chart the 6 hour chart timeframe was used, there is no particular reason for this except the fact you can see everything that I want to show in this analysis properly and clearly.
Bitcoin is trading at a consolidation between 7580 and 7260 and has been since the big pump in Bitcoin that brought us from 6360 to around 7550 in one bullish swoop. Due to the nature of the move, the consolidation has been proof that bulls are maintaining price at the highs. As I mentioned above, is it the public/retail overexcited people being lured into the final part of a short term market cycle lifespan, or is this sustained bullish pressure by big money? Well, with the ETF on the cards, followed by the futures, there has been reason for up move fundamentally speaking too. But for now, I'll stick to what I can prove... Let's look at the candlestick behavior. Candlesticks on the 4 hour chart showing a rounded bottom has taken place thus far, and it does look neat. The rounded bottom alone isn't a major thing for me, but what does make it appealing to me is a side-wards resistance line, that appears to be acting as a support line. Whilst this doesn't mean we are going to the "moon", it does mean that at least we know now that if price breaks BELOW this level, then we can simply scrap the rounded bottom theory because it was negated by the side-wards support failing, and we can just watch for another set up... For this reason the line is a very key indicator to short term market sentiment, which is exactly what we should be looking at when the market is consolidating as is, especially for a volatile marketplace like Cryptocurrency, it's like a holy grail to have this indication.
If price breaks below 7330, and retests the current side-wards support line as a resistance at around 7440, then price will be trapped in a bearish situation and chances are it'll correct. If price breaks the rounded top resistance with a candlestick close above around 7540 then this shows are are in a bullish wave again. This wave will last at least up to 7720. However, if it breaks above 7720, it actually has potentially to be a 3 wave impulse and go as high as 8400, but this is the best scenario.
Where do you think price is going? Leave a chart in the comments section and let's share our ideas!
I'd really appreciate it if you can all leave a like. :-)
Thank you all your support.
評論
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Price has had a very decisive and calculated down move which broke the side-wards line that was acting as our "trend-meter". Price didn't only break below but it did so in style... Price had a strong wick up to resistance followed by massive trading below the candles opening price showing bears didn't give a care in the world for the level.
Price will now either:
- Correct to the downside to the support zone at 6870. - Trade upwards again and retest the side-wards support line as a new resistance before then breaking down to 6870.
To people who are commenting "We can go up or down then thanks!" are worrying me right now.. :-(... My analysis says above this line bull and below bearish. This line determined the entire trend and anyone with even basic Trading/Technical Analysis knowledge realizes this.
Anyone who thinks that you shouldn't consider both sides of the trade are about as logical as people who trade without stop losses. After all if the trade can only go one way, why bother using a stop-loss right?
If anyone only sees that there's 2 sides of the trade and doesn't see the actual talking point of the analysis, then you urgently need my trading course, I can set you all from beginner trading standard all the way to my professional trading level, and you will begin making profits for yourselves :-)
If you're struggling to learn to trade, There are many resources you can use. Start with the website- Thepatternsite. This is a great place to begin learning the basics and I think it's one of the best sites out there.
To those who see the point of this analysis, we are ready to trade and make profits now, let's keep an eye for this one and wait for our trade to come :-)
Please leave a LIKE. I'd really appreciate it.
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I forgot to add - If it breaks above 7450 again, the above update is NEGATED. The above update is entirely conditional that price stays below 7450 only.
Any close above indicates bulls are too strong, and I will reconsider this position. :-)
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My last update was negated due to price breaking 7450. Price broke nicely below the side-wards support line, looked like it was going to retest the support as a new resistance then price broke above the resistance again and retested the horizontal resistance zone that we started at!
The bulls are being incredibly stubborn at the highs and does show bullish conviction, however this means NOTHING because price has still not broken above the resistance zone in my initial analysis at 7870. Until this happens, it's going to continue to be volatile.
@aceman0920, If it went side-ways then it would correspond with a down scenario if you actually think about what you're saying. But nice attempt at looking pro :-)
@TomProTrader, My mom is partner w me and she is only one I can talk to about crypto, so I'm constantly saying to her well, if it goes up to this price then maybe this..if it goes down to this price then maybe this...or it could go sideways for awhile and then up or down....So she now does a mantra like the sign of the cross with her hands like the father , son and holy goast..it can go up, or can go down...or, it can go sideways, and of course that's absolutely right....thanks for the website, I'm on it now....
Astroc
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imho there is no space to go up a lot. I think we move in a pink channel on my char. So there is little room to go. Especially I expect we have very similar momentun of reversal than during downtrend. Lines look good. What is more we already made 6 green daily candle in a row. Last time we did it was in june and BTC dropped 30%. I am not so pessimistic but such long daily streaks must stop finally. When we check daily bbands we already are strongly overbought the same stoch/rsi. There is horizontal support at 7780 and 50 weekly ema at 7700. Literally there is so many indicators which say we should stop here.
The market cap as a whole rose somewhat in the last week, however that has retraced. At the same time Btc market dominance is growing. That indicates to me that the rise in btc value is due to money is moving out of alts, rather than a general exuberance about cryptocurrency.
1. BTC goes up
2. BTC goes down
This is my TA. Thanks everybody.