This the latest update i made on my analysis about Bitcoin. I just would like to show you this and see what you make of it. So comments and questions are welcome
This looks like a wedge, but it only counts when those to orange area's are small fake outs. But the most important thing, the volume picture is wrong for this to be a wedge. If volume was right, i would short it instantly and heavy. Now i am still thinking about it. And before i forget, normally after the last breakout we should see an acceleration down. But as i have mentioned many times before, the chart tells a story, not just a picture.
WHat do i mean with this: -We have a wedge (maybe) -Volume is to high at the end -No fast rejection and price dump from the high.
Just think about it, what if it IS a wedge, and because volume is higher than it should be (which means there are more buyers than it should have here), it supports the price from making a dive down and slowing this part of the wedge down.
Target of that flag was around 9100, if we fall short it's a weakness, or we could make one more jump to the 9100. As i am writing this, i have opened a small short position at 9665 and i will add again around 9100 with a stop around 9250. It's all (again) a small position
評論
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Where i have mentioned that i opened my short position at 9665, that had to be 8965 :)
評論
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This post was meant to be a educational one. I am almost certain i did it right.
評論
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Hello guys, i won't to point out this chart again. It was supposed to be an educational idea, but something went wrong i think. We have our answer now and i think it got it figured out quite well. Of course it could be luck, to early to say it will go like this every time, but i think we will see more of these in the coming period.
Hi botje! I think we should look at these lines of wedge. I would also like to point out that on 1H chart there is a mild RSi divergence present currently. So some weakness is present. I would say that when price breaks the bottom line of wedge, bears will make a push. How far down is anyone's guess. It could be just as in february, when it only corrects a bit and then goes on to the upside. I think we should not overlook that price wants to go test the negative trend from ATH. So we should treat all breaks to the downside as something that doesn't have a lot of potential short term. I am opening a small short at 9090 with a stop at 9250 and then I will add when price breaks 8870 to the downside. I will assume that price will reach 10k before any strong sell off. So all these positions are extra small and extra dangerous. More for fun to stay connected to the market, than for any real profit.
botje11
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@beringx, Your view is quite similar as mine, also don't expect a very big drop from here, unless 8600 breaks, than things could change maybe, thanks for sharing
VIPIN_IITK
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what I am thinking the price will move sideways along the support of wedge before jumping to the 9300-9400 before falling down to 8900-8700. it looks like its following previous wave of the wedge. but i wanna ask why u mention 9665 to create a bull trap.
VIPIN_IITK
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correction to my previous comment: 9665 because there r chances of bull trap created by whales, am I right @boitje11
botje11
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@VIPIN_IITK, No sorry i typed that wrong, corrected it in the update :)
nomuhyuna
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On the message board I frequent, they usually say as a half joke that the bus driver (=price manipulators) goes wherever he wants to go in BTC, hence the unpredictability.
Is there any chance that this would unfold like the rally around 2/15 ~ 2/20? (from a novice's perspective) Similarity could be that no noticeable drops for several days, long sideways movement.
botje11
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@nomuhyuna, That is very possible of course. Bitcoin has surprised me many times before, would not be the first time.
VikiYorGuk
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how you can say it for stop here 8K9
BullWick
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How low do you expect this to drop if you are shorting at 8965É (question mark). If that massive flat was wave 4 and we just put in 5 to 9050 I get it cuz BTC can go to 8K + - 200. But if 1 finished and this last pump was 1of3 then 8750ish is about max low for this correction. I know you are not an EW guy but just wondering what your target is here. FWIW many alts put in 5 waves and are ready for a hefty wave 2 type correction so that jives well with your short.
botje11
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@BullWick, I already got out, but i did not have a real target. 8700 is a very strong support, so if would see a real bounce there i would get out with a trailing stop of around the 150 points