BTCUSD: Bitcoin: Next Trade Points
Bitcoin was expected to fall back to 7301 before bouncing
away again. In the event it fell to an intra-day low at 7273
before the bounce came. Not great.
Since then it's made a high at 7599 and extended to touch the
upper end of the same (less acute) parallels that have been
running inside the noise of the last 4 days or so.
The near term picture is still more positive than negative at
this point and Bitcoin should push higher still towards the next
upside target at 7760-7817 as the day wears on.
But in the near term it's a little over-extended and needs to
consolidate again. Initial support lies at 7480- any failure here
will likely create a fast retest of the 7401 line at lowest
today. It must hold here off the lower rising parallel for the
counter-rally to stay good from this point.
If wrong at this point any eventual failure here at 7400 will
turn the tables yet again and trigger another near term short
back to 7166.
Bitcoin was expected to fall back to 7301 before bouncing
away again. In the event it fell to an intra-day low at 7273
before the bounce came. Not great.
Since then it's made a high at 7599 and extended to touch the
upper end of the same (less acute) parallels that have been
running inside the noise of the last 4 days or so.
The near term picture is still more positive than negative at
this point and Bitcoin should push higher still towards the next
upside target at 7760-7817 as the day wears on.
But in the near term it's a little over-extended and needs to
consolidate again. Initial support lies at 7480- any failure here
will likely create a fast retest of the 7401 line at lowest
today. It must hold here off the lower rising parallel for the
counter-rally to stay good from this point.
If wrong at this point any eventual failure here at 7400 will
turn the tables yet again and trigger another near term short
back to 7166.
Bitcoin was expected to push higher during a long, slow but overall positive day yesterday - it was certainly long and slow but it didn't push much higher though.
Once it broke below 7480 it was meant to fall to 7401 at lowest before bouncing away again to the upside.
In the event the subsequent low fell at 7415 before Bitcoin began to rally again.
Since the low Bitcoin is now back retesting the high of yesterday at 7599 on Coinbase.
It should meet profit taking from day traders here in the nearterm and come back to 7550 and move sideways for a while.
We've had 3 waves up in this counter-rally so far and each one is smaller though similar to the one before it. This rally as Europe opened is lame so far and lacking intent or any real interest. It will need more buyers again from 7550 and off the lower parallel at worst to stay positive today from here. Even if it can manage this there is the worry that there's not much upside potential left in what would be a 4th and final wave upwards. It needs a big green impulse candle to emerge on a break above 7600 to change that view.
Yesterday it was Ok to buy the dip - today is less certain.
The only weapon the bulls look to have left in their armoury is the potential for a sketchy RHS pattern to complete with a break above 7600 on a volume spike.
Despite the resistance at 7638-7660 if this RHS is to have a chance of working out it should rally towards 7660 at first and then come back to test the neck-line at 7600 again. It must bounce away to the upside again from this point with more volume arriving to help it on its way.
So if we see 7600 broken to the upside it's quite high risk following long - use a stop 20 to 30 points lower and if this potential break then lacks volume coming in right behind it don't hang about hoping, just close out again and look aagain as it comes back to the neck-line. The market is too uncertain for any gung-ho trades right now and there is resistance mounting from 7638 and 7662. But the RHS' right shoulder is a little better defined now after yesterday's price action and it has 600 points of upside potential if it can complete as above - so despite risks will be looking to trade it as the downside is only 20-30 points or so. But it is risky nonetheless.
Returning to the downside initial support lies at 7550 followed by 7480. Any break below 7480 will force a retest of 7415-7390 range which when broken below will flip Bitcoin back into bear hands and trigger a short back to 7166 at a minimum if not to 7068.
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