Once BTC will start trading it's , it will be trading at a very different dynamics unlike it is trading right now. BTC will be treated as big dogs such as Oil , Gold , Silver , and other . "A contract is a legal agreement, generally made on the trading floor of a exchange, to buy or sell a particular commodity or financial instrument at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future." (Investopedia).
Why it will crash?
1.Big Holders of Bitcoin will book their profit because once there is future contracts out in the market, they do not know what will happen to their investments. Pros will be watching its every single price movement. This will create huge volatile. With all those profits and free money, it is only rational to be safe than to be sorry.
2.When Big Holders sell their millions of bitcoins at 20X or even 200X leverage, supply of the bitcoin will surpass demand as it is a limited resource . Who knows there might be that one guys sitting on a million bitcoin decide to sell all at once, and we all know what happens when 100K bitcoin is sold at once.
3. The price is speculative at the moment, it will be treated as legit commodity from now on. Yes the price will recover because there are many investors who are waiting for this moment to dive in but are looking for a correction. Don't forget the short sellers who really want this to go low so that they can sit on a bag load of bitcoin .
1.Long term 5 correction is the worse. Surprisingly bitcoin also follows the waves theory. Since this is targeted at common people, here is the basic theory.
*Wave 2 cannot be longer in price than wave 1, and it must not go beyond the origin of wave 1.
*Wave 3 is never the shortest when compared to waves 1 and 5 (Price or Percentage wise).
*Wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1
*As a guideline the third wave shows the greatest momentum, except when the fifth is the extended wave.
*Wave 5 must exceed the end of wave 3.
*As a guideline the internal wave structure should show alternation, which means
different kind of corrective structures in wave 2 and 4.
This chart fulfills all these criteria
2.Previous correction and the corrections before started at the same fib level, what a coincidence, since the same fib 1.68 will be the next resistant according to the wave movement. (Yes the wave 5 will be simmilar magnitude to wave 1)
1. Expect ETH/BTC to go up.
2. Expect Other Cryptos to gain value.
3. Waite for the bitcoin to go down before filling your wallet with this valuable comodity
If the long term wave 5 surpasses wave three, This would be invalid. But what are the chance of millions of people not getting spooked by technical and the fundamentals? I am just giving my perspective on this, the decision is yours!
Hope this helps, I am a dutch, its hard for me to clarify in English. But I hope you all got the jist!
If you have questions related to my analysis, feel free to ask me in the comment section and I will be happy to respond.
Here are the details about megaphone pattern.
I am no expert on cryptos, however, this pattern comes before every single major crash!
For those who are concern about bitcoin just being a made-up value, please remember money and company's valuation is a made up value too. Value increases as demand grows since now it's going to be seen as a commodity, demand for bitcoin will keep on growing. Expect exponential growth in the future.
If it doesn't crash at the level shown above, it will reach 18K in no time.
Do you think alts will also fall because people take profits or maybe exchanges will make trading pairs without bitcoin involved? Sell all alts or wait until more people get in?
Futures i think are very risky for all because with leverage they can easy buy of the whole orderbook on all exchanges or isnt this possible?
Trendwise 500.000 or even a million is very possible. For that to happen, there needs to be consolidation.
I don't know if this is true for alt but generally in forex, if a demand of primary option decreases, the demand for secondary option picks up so I think ETH/BTC will go up, LTC/BTC will go up, anything that has a BTC quote should go up. At the same time, anything with USD quote should go down, eg. LTC/USD, ETH/USD etc..
I think more people will get in after the correction takes place and the value of BTC will be 100K in 2-3 month. People aren't interested on other coins as they are interested in BTC.
Keep in mind this is only the technical analysis and my opinion, I don't know for sure that it will crash. If I was trading this like a stock I would put a stop loss at 10.000. Since I am holding a few, I simply placed the sell order at 13.500 if it executes I will look for a concrete support at a lower price and a little rise before getting back in. If it somehow passes 14.500 I would get back in because the next target is at 18.400.
We will see what will happen.
nice greetings from Austria :)