We are currently testing December's resistance line. On the Auto-Scale, we broke through that line already, but not on the logscale.
The overall sentiment is bullish and I don't get why to be quite honest with you.
Yes, we had a 30% increase in two weeks. Yes, we are forming higher highs and higher lows short term.
However, that does NOT change the fact that we are far away from being in a bull market.
People tend to forget what the longterm price action is telling us.
Notice how each time the RSI reached 60 level while price touched the resistance line, BTC dropped big time. We've been forming lower highs since December. What's so bullish about that?
Additionally, I see BTC forming a huge rising wedge on the daily chart, which, combined with the afore mentioned factors, is anything but "obviously bullish".
The 12.500$-11.200$ has proven to be a key zone multiple times. I'm going to turn bullish, once we get a sustained breakthrough at that zone.
Right now, I see three potential scenarios for BTC.
1. Price fails to break through the resistance and we get a nasty drop towards a new low (I'm anticipating 5.500$ - 5.000$) and see how things go from there.
2. We get a low volume break through and form some sort of a double top at the blue zone (9.000$ - 9.300$) and fall below the rising wedge, forming a new low.
3. We actually get a trend reversal (less likely in my oppinion) and retest the 11k$ level.
Anyways, right now is not the time to take either long or short positions. Whales are doing their thing and the overall price behavior is anything but predictable right now.
Price is increasing, while volume is decreasing. There are random pumps & dumps taking place.
Before taking any positions, I highly recommend everybody to WAIT for a UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE CONFIRMATION.
That's it from my side, I'm going to keep you guys updated!
Regards
Shaheen
評論
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Scenario 1 just got invalidated. Short term target zone: 9kish
評論
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Pushing that high with decreasing volume and without a proper retracement is anything but healthy.
評論
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I suggest everybody to stay awake. Things are becoming very interesting.
評論
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Using the line chart in order to draw support and resistances is actually the most powerful way.
I agree - Look out for a possible downtrend starting around April 25-26. I suspect it to hit a low at APPROX May 17. Low= buying opportunity
ShaheenFahmy
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@cedarfox, Yes, I agree. If BTC keep rejecting this resistance, things aren't looking peachy
NQ95
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thanks alot for the update man
much appreicated :)
Ill be honest, it's so so hard being in tether right now and also holding a short since 7k area
Im feeling destroyed, and was about to give up tomorrow if we go above 200EMA daily, untill I saw ur post
gave me a better insight
ShaheenFahmy
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@NQ95, Thanks for the Feedback & comment.
Before entering a trade I suggest you to ask yourself the following question:
"What if I'm wrong?"
By asking this question, your Risk Management for Sure will improve, Protecting you from feeling "destroyed" about a position in loss.