A long silence here on BTC #BitStamp, as the Geo completes an imperfect 5-prime (see parallel lines validation at 5') - Per Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, this 5-prime definition called for a rally with a HIGH probability target corresponding to the price level of Point-4. Turns out, this is exactly what price did, as it rallied from 5' but failed to continue its ascent above the price level of Point-4 - See light PINK range in the following chart:
GEO CONSTRUCTION:
For the adept in Geo, look for a near perfect construction, where 1-2 Leg represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, the 2-3 Leg represents a complex Elliott Wave (EW) ZZ, the 3-4 Leg represents a simple EW ZZ, and price departs from the validation of the Geo's 1-3 Line.
GEO's OFF-SET RULE:
As a reminder, the Geo's Off-Set Rule represent a geometric compensation where distortion of price along the 1-3 and 2-4 Line will tend to displace the high probability target, such that:
Off-Set Rule #1 - If price rallies from Point-5, the HIGH probability target lies along the 1-4 Line (same as Wolfe Wave target);
Off-Set Rule #2 - If price rallies from Point-5', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-4 (as was the case in this example);
AND
Off-Set Rule #3 - If price rallies from Point-5'', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-3.
NOTE that the relative incidence of these rules are such that:
Aside from this background geometry, the Predictive/Forecasting Model offers the two following high-probability target:
1 - TG-1 = 266.41 - 09 FEB 2016
AND
2 - TG-Lox = 170.70 - 09 FEB 2016
INVALIDATION:
The higher target that were defined last November remain unattainable at this point, based on the interdicting nature of the Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, whereby price remains subordinate to the Geo's 1-4 Line. However, invalidation of this rule should occur IF price BACA > 1-4 Line (RED arrows), in which case, bearish target would also become invalid.
OVERALL:
Bearish outlook based on background Geo's rule and supported by Predictive/Forecasting Model's bearish target - Invalidation depends upon price breaching above the 1-4 Line.
Best,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA
In the case of an adverse excursion (here, we are referring to a rally), consider $502 a reasonable threshold for bear to worry:
Best,
David Alcindor
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13 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Watch for possibility of price carving a higher high, now that it appears to consolidate at the above 388.58 resistance level:
Watch for the WW/Geo completion here.
Best,
David Alcindor
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13 FEB 2016 - ADDENDUM:
BLACK Geo completes at 5 versus BLUE Geo completing at 5':
Another intermediate geo also completed at the current price level - Price is being pressured down. If price breaks > 392.00, then bulls got out of this sticky tar pit.
David
David
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13 FEB 2016 - ADDENDUM:
Adding structural top level at 391.88 and WL at 393.88:
David Alcindor
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Typo: WL = 398.99 (not 393.88):
David Alcindor
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16 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Watch for this 1.618-Fib retracement on M15x4 timeframe since WL failure:
Would correspond to 0.386-Fib retracement and structural support.
Best,
David Alcindor
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25 MAY 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
502 may represent a make or brake in this DAILY chart - Look for this developing geometry ... Staying off of lower timeframes:
Best,
David Alcindor
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05 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Analysis had to occur at the WEEKLY level, but most recent targets remain intact:
Look for the potential development of a WW/Geo, with Point-3 possibly occurring in the area defined by the 591/647 zone.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster
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07 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Speculative play in #bitcoin:
Best,
David Alcindor
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07 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Friends,
Using the chart I posted recently, here is how the WW/Geo would fit in the speculative price pathway:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster
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07 JUN 2016 - Addendeum:
Potential reciprocal ab = cd symmetry development, approximates targets:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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11 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price hit 612.96 target. As per WEEKLY forecast, expecting slight retracement, likely towards the 502 structural support:
Best,
David Alcindor
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17 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Bears reached a nosebleed WL level defined in the Weekly chart as a make-or-break level (i.e.: having to convert to a Monthly level analysis if price closed the week above that level).
However, a reversal pattern may be forming, looking at a potential H&S with internal bearish impulse now pointing:
Looking at the H1 level, a soft support exists at the 686.56/676.80 range, with potential decline below to the 470.02 (502 in the Weekly chart, although this level of refinement can only be confirmed if and once price follows a bearish downward course, as forecast in the Weekly chart.
Have a wonderful weekend,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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18 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Watch out for this potential bearish pathway:
David Alcindor
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18 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
Double-topped; Bears remain in charge:
David
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20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Look for these successive levels of support:
BTCUSD/Bitstamp - M15:
BTCUSD/Bitstamp - H1:
Best,
David Alcindor
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20 JUN 2016 - Chart update:
Break of this support may fashion the ominous H&S:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
Price hit the 706 level ... Bears pressing on:
Best,
David
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20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
Price stomped at neckline range, ... Defines a higher-probability H&S pattern ... Bearish:
Best,
David Alcindor
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21 JUN 2016 - Chart Update;
First, happy first day of summer!
Second: Bears remain in force, as price continues to decline from the forecast WL and follows the bearish forecast:
Best,
David Alcindor
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22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price cleared the forecast 686/676 range, fell and now tests the presumed H&S neckline - Per H1 Model, look for a support at the 559.95 level at this timeframe, whereas bears remain the dominant force in the longer frames:
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster
At this point, as per TG-1 nature, expect a retracement (as opposed to reversal seen in qualitative targets), up to, but unlikely above the 676/686 range, which represents to prior target.
Best,
David Alcindor, CM Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)
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22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Remember this overall WEEKLY chart:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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23 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
Retracement target range of 686/676 was hit, as per dashed forecast line:
David Alcindorr, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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24 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
As forecast, price is retracting from overhead target zone, following a sustained ascent after hitting lower target - Outlook remains bearish:
Look for a breach and sustained, impulsive move above the prior target-hit at 759.09 for an invalidation of current predictive analysis and forecast.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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24 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
As price continues to follow the dashed arrow pathway closely, here is some refinement of the predictive analysis:
1 - Price is likely to break above 683.88 - By doing so, bulls are fighting an uphill battle, meeting significant resistance at the 714.01 level, and likely being stomped with probable reversal at the 744.15 level. 2 - Invalidation of reversal scenario would occur if price BACA > 778.85 3 - Bearish forecast remains intact and in force, as per recently posted WEEKLY chart.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster
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25 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
Price remains under the 683.88 handle; Still, expecting a limited upside move in the 714/744 range:
Best,
David Alcindor
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26 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Bulls were not able to push back to expected level shown; Now carving lower-low - Bearish tack remains intact and in force:
Best,
David Alcindor
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26 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Bulls are pushing back. If price BACA > 683.88, then consider 744.15 a high-probability reversal level at this lower timeframe - Still, larger TF remains bearish with lower lows eyes:
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster
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30 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
If price BACA > 683, then 144 remains the next probable highest target:
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster
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02 JULY 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price broke through 683.88 ... Look for significant bearish entrenchment in the 714.01/744.15 range:
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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02 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price carves lower-lows, opens to bearish targets: 502.00 is probable, 309 remains possible:
Regards,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
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02 AUG 2016 - Chart Update:
Price hit forecast 502 level:
CROW Code students, look for CROW cycle completion at failure following Tail completion
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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06 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Watch for these two levels:
1 - Resistance at 645.00
AND
2 - Support at 245.16
Regards,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
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17 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
High-probability reversal at the 145/666 range ... Watch for 660.02:
Price hit 612.96 target. As per WEEKLY forecast, expecting slight retracement, likely towards the 502 structural support:
Best,
David Alcindor
unasisaivanu
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Hey David now the watch line is broken can you post a monthly forcast?
IamCryptoWolf
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hello David,
Is it possible that we have already topped reaching point 3, 1.414 fib ext.
Also RSI seems toppish.
4xForecaster
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Hello @giuseppesoio - Yes, the 1.414 level appears very plausible here - Your internal 1-2-3-4-5'' (RED) would call for a price return to the level of its point-3 (Geo's Rule #3), defining an expectant value for Point-4 (BLUE) along the line you have defined.
Very nice.
David Alcindor
IamCryptoWolf
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Thanks David, this could develop in a new ww geo.
4xForecaster
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Hello @giuseppesoio - Yes, you got it.
Using the chart I posted recently, here is how the WW/Geo would fit in the speculative price pathway:
Best,
David Alcindor
bitsunrise
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Hi David! You've just nailed that mate :)
noto1235
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thanks for the update David can u plz explain what r u implying with " 145/666 range ... Watch for 660.02"
and can u plz look into LTCBTC ratio and LTC USD for BTC-E exchange
both seem to form a bottom ( or should I say a double bottom around 0.006 and 3.22 respectively)
I remember when u posted an update for LTC before it was very helpful kind regards :)
thanks ...
noto1235
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oh I understand about BTC analysis now ...kindly update LTC too thanks
4xForecaster
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Hello @noto1235 - Thank you for your query and kind compliments. Because of the demand, I have since responded to specific request by providing a paid service. Feel free to contact me by PM if you have any specific request on a chart, exchange, timeframe. Feel free also to share your chart, or if you feel confident, let me review your position. My analyses are based on quantitative data using fractal events within non-price fields - It is called CROW Code (CROW stands for Constant Rescaling Of Wavelets, where wavelets are simply fractal manifestations that allows the method to define direction and strength of the underlying market - that's the predictive analysis part - as well as extent of price move - that's the forecasting part of the analysis. Feel free to check recent performance using the #CROWSignalService hashtag on Twitter.
Price hit 612.96 target. As per WEEKLY forecast, expecting slight retracement, likely towards the 502 structural support:
Best,
David Alcindor