Calm my good followers. Profit taking is a good thing in a market, and perhaps a sign of some maturity coming to the still comparatively new BTC Market.
So yesterday after our very 4 H close above the channel, we had a Daily close below. As my old trading mentor used to say, In trading the longer the Stronger, so Daily failure trumps 4H success. Unfortunately, I was flying during all this yesterday and couldn’t update.
The Daily failure was more a failure of expectation, than reality. A test and consolidation round these levels has always been likely, and the 4 H success a bit of a surprise to come so soon. Once we had that failure something NEW happened to BTC IMHO. We had a signal at the top of an extended move and some traders who had made some money on this aggressive trip up decided to bank some profits. Failing to do so hurt many of them in the last couple of months and a lesson may well have been learnt here. If it has then this market will become more technical, and even EASIER for the skilled trader to profit from.
For many of our follower’s targets had been hit, Stop losses moved up as per our updates and the pullback saw positions closed banking profits not losses. This was no disaster, this was an orderly banking of money earnt on the way up. That is how trading works.
So how do we know if this is a pullback or of we are going back down to set a new low (something badly missing from our chart). Well we watch the chart, its not hard and all through our early analysis. We have talked about the range between 12 k and either 10 k, or the 200EMA. So now we watch our charts and we watch our levels.
Price is currently testing the lows of 2/3 days ago. We will watch this level for a bounce, but really the key level is 10K (9976). If we get a close below that on a 4h Chart or especially a D chart we need to be very cautious. But if we get a bounce there a new test of the Channel and then 12k (11700) is likely. I am going to spend a lot of extra time in front of my charts in the next few days. Not just to make money but because I now have followers and I want to keep you up to date. If we get a break below our level, I will update here and keep you informed. Relax a bit you are in the safe hands of Dollars and Senses.
BTC remains a very emotional chart with big moves as the opinions of the general public bounce around like Donald Trumps Hair piece. Its fuelled by a combination of extreme Greed and Fear, and a lot of over hyped analysis in both directions. It’s the toughest part of trading but our job is to put our open trade positions to one side, step outside the hype and read our charts. Those that can do that make great wealth, and those that cannot blame everything else in the world.
If your newish to this, the next few days could well be a big learning time. Look after your risk, watch and let the charts lead and educate us.
That education, if learnt properly will be worth more Dollars and Senses than you can ever know.
"The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator." - Ben Graham
You are an investor, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts.
Right now today is the day to tell the wife that you haven't been spending enough time with her and the markets can wait while you take her for a meal, Brownie points and nothing much to miss.
My job is to keep you informed and i will keep watching the charts and posting occasional updates for you. Although i will be away for a meal.
Its only the Hourly chart, and its not as important as longer time frames but i think the picture is clear we are on our way to test 10,000 and probably 9950.00. A close below would be very negative. A bounce would suggest we are on way back to the top channel line where this selling started.
For me most likely the cue is in the rack until we have clarity.
If you worked hard to earn your money, only put it in the market when you have clarity, that way you can multiple it, instead of watching it fade away.
You can see clearly on the H chart that BTCUSD has come to our level with a final decisive push down, and now the fight is on. Price is ranging inside our rectangle while the battle is fought, and volume is up a bit while the buyers and sellers are fighting for direction here. Its the ideal time for the fight as the US awakens and brings masses of traders and there volume to the table.
Who will Win? Well i don't know that's why i am flat on BTC. I will watch my charts and explain the situation to you as it unfolds.
I do expect clarity in the next 12 hours, a break and close below on 4 H or D chart would be very Bearish. A large buying bar closing above 10K, very Bullish.
WE have the best seats in the house, buy some popcorn and watch and learn
I am going to have a short break and get some rest, i will update you all again as soon as i am back
The image is off the hourly charts as for now, the Devils in the detail.
For me the most important thing that BTC did this time was rally off the lows, gone back to retest them providing a Double Bottom (Shown on the chart). This gives us a credible base to work from even if its only on a H chart. I have moved my support line down to the level, as for now its the base we are working from and another test would be positive but a break below negative.
having put in the double bottom we immediately had a decisive buying bar closing above 10,000 as a statement of direction, and then headed up to test some levels. It has just tested some recent bar High and lows and started to retrace, We can expect lots of this but i wouldn't worry as long as price is above our base.
If it starts to head back up the next key level are 10200, being our last low, and the 20 EMA (The Blue line).
For me its still to early to be clear and sure so its too early to trade, For those desperate to get in the buy is next time we break 10K, with SL under the base around 9700, and Final target the upper channel, with an early Target to bank some profit crucial.
If we take out the base i will be back to advise my beloved followers as quickly as i can.
Thanks to the ever growing number of people watching, following and agreeing with this post. Good TA isn't about Hype, and big headlines its about patience and common Senses. Im no wizard at this just a hard working dude, with lots of experience. Everything i know you can learn and use.
If you want more support and practical help in the tougher times follow DollarsandSenses, where we try and make common senses into Dollars.
Looks like we are back in the box on the H chart, and waiting for direction.
I am sorry for all the updates, i really am trying to keep people informed and not spam you with information.
It is starting to look more likely we will have a Bearish Break.
The question is where to next?
For the Bulls we need to back above 9750, and close on a 4H Chart.
For the Bears we need to see a bounce short from the level with 9,000 and the 200EMA on the Daily Chart a probably target with 9488, and 9225 probable stop on the way.
So having dipped below our 9750 level on the Hourly chart, the retest has failed to bounce and price has broken back above our level. Not only that but the 4H Chart has closed above, meaning all 4H and D bar closes remain above our level. This is a little more bullish, and i am prepared to place a SMALL buy order here.
Entry above the last 4 H bar, with SL below. I will manage targets as we go but the ultimate target will always be the upper Channel line, with an aggressive scale out around 10215, where the 200 ema is on the 4H chart.
I hope that you managed to got some profits banked at our first target, it was pretty tight but on days like today you just want to bank when you can. Who would have thought you could bank on a Buy today. Dollars and Senses, that is who
We are comfortably back at our first target and should be banking Profits if we havent already. We are just above the 200EMA on both the 4H and H charts and if the $ Hour candles close there, I expect we have a crack at them. Only once we have a close above can we consider we will be going back for a look at the top channel Line. I am off for a couple of hour sleep before i get ready for the US.
This in my view was a good day, we showed patience, and we got our opportunity we grabbed some money. Why did i enter, look at the bottom on the 4H Chart, that's what reversals look like. If you took this trade you had the courage to buy when everyone was selling, and your brought the bottom, and made some money. That's a good feeling.
Thanks to all who followed, liked and commented on this thread. I have reached a stage in life where this is what i want to do, i want to share my knowledge. The more who join us the better.
I would like to use an pullbacks in this are as buying opportunities but will sit this one out due to the decisive nature of the pullback bar. (arrow above). Notice how its a long bar, with a big body and closes to the bottom. Its quite a strong bearish signal and suggests the pullback may not be over.
Its a nice endogenous level we have pulled back to being 10100 a lower high on the last trip down.
Still for now i am on the sidelines watching again.
So our decision not to trade last update was confirmed by the continued move down, and even if i had been in front of my charts i wouldn't have traded as i nothing on my charts to give me a reason to expect bounce around 9874.
I would like one more Entry before we go back and test the channel top but to get it i need a simple ABC Pattern (Black Arrows on my chart). I need an Advance through levels to a new high, A pull Back to support (Probably the 200EMA (Green line) or 10200 Horizontal region (Or better both), Then a bounce and price to advance up again. If i get it i will trade and will advise levels. But most of my position will close around 10,700 and the main descending Channel.
Our earlier trades should be closed, and profits banked. Its time to be flat and to sit and watch.
Join to keep following
If you can get this for 9500 you did okay if you got it for 9250 you got a steal. This is going to explode...I keep saying it. If we move down I would be amazed if we go any lower than the fib at 9277. I am going to pick up another load around there. We are taking off tonight. Look at the charts and stop using your emotions on these down moves. It turns everyone into clucking chickens that don't know where this is going.....its goin up tonight! All my opinion but when I'm right than you will see (@mycoinmoon)