Again, everyone should be aware of the essential trend lines for BTC . I've published the shorter term, more aggressive TL for BTC in another post.
Three things to take away from this post:
-btc is best viewed on a logarithmic scale. When people look at the linear chart of btc and see a vertical line up...yes, that is scary because it suggests extreme downside. It makes much more sense looking at it this way.
-we can deviate VERY far north of the trendline . That is FOMO. As you can see pre Mt Gox. Don't think because we are so far above the trend line you should SHORT btc . Defintely, definitely not.
-we can conceivably fall down below 2k btc again and still be in an overall uptrend. That would still be a very bad situation and i prefer it never happen. But actual breaking of this multi year trendline would be very, very bad.
I should note that novices really shouldn't be shorting...
there is a much easier way to make money on the way down. If a major trend line breaks, sell your btc. sit in cash or USDT. wait until RSI is significantly oversold, buy the dip, sell the 3-7% bounce. Rinse and repeat while waiting for higher lows and higher highs.