SecludedJ

Bitcoin Is Going To Be Fine

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Good morning! Good Afternoon! Good Evening!

I have had several disagreements with others prior to this setback at $11,800, stating that we will not cross $12,000 before making a correction to the $9,000 level. I was met with lots of disagreement, as usual, and that's fine. It's merely that they don't understand why we were going to go down, and they want it to do something different simply because they put their money on a specific bet, and that would be counter-intuitive to their bet on "up". So, I'm not taking it personal. But, we need to see what's going on in this chart to understand why we must make a further ride down, and why we got rejected so hard in the first place.

I saw dozens of charts posting that we had broken the major downtrend channel when we were around $11,500. The chart I was looking at, we weren't even close to it yet. So I started peaking around at different exchanges, and looking at different currencies besides the USD to see what their charts looked like. It was a mixed bag of results. Some charts had entirely different patterns, some had broken the downtrend, and some weren't even near it yet.

That screamed bull trap to me. But, I had called for this bull trap when we were at $10,500, saying "you better watch out for the bull trap when that downtrend appears to be broken."

So, why the setback? Why here? Why $11,800? Well, honestly, it should have gone to $12,000-$12,200, but as you probably know, targets don't always get met, and it's not uncommon for a target to get missed by 2-3%, especially one that is obvious. To me, $12,000 was obvious, so, we stopped at $11,800. I was taking profit from $11,500-11,750, and was able to get rid of about 80% of my bag, and have had to ride down with the remaining 20%. No worries! I got rid of 80%! Cheap coins coming to me later! But why $12,000? Well, there was clearly resistance there. And, $12,000 is a nice 100% profit spot from the $6,000 bottom.

When we printed our bottom at $6,000 (yes, that is our bottom, stop worrying about those who are calling for more), we printed two possible patterns, and we left a wide gaping hole open at $9,000 that was not checked for support.

We either printed an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern. Or, we printed an Adam and Eve pattern.

If we printed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, then we are to come back and test the neckline for support before making further up movements.

If we printed an Adam and Eve pattern, then we are to come back and test the peak line for support before further up movements.

So, where do we go from here? Well, we will bounce around a little bit here. I think we could see as high as $11,400 before we start the real down movement. Maybe we don't get that. But, we need to locate where our bottom could be in this fall, and in my opinion, there are two possible spots.

We have the Adam and Eve Neckline around $9,100. And we have the Inverse Head and Shoulders neckline around $8,000 - $8,400. We will get a further idea of which one it plans on targeting once this pattern clarifies itself here over the next 24 hours. But as for now, my plan is to add half my position at $9,100, watch the reaction, see if we have further down movements, if we do, I'll add more down there, if we show reversal at $9100, I'll add the remaining on some pull backs down there.

But let me leave you with some good news. I think our bottom is in. And I think we have a very nice ride up ahead of us, and this should be our final setback before making a beautiful ride up to $17,000. So, trade with care. Trade with education. And, trade at your own risk. Your failures are not my responsibility :)

Good luck.




評論: Bitcoin appears to be breaking down. It could still have some curveballs in it and fly up to above $11,000 before making it's final trip down. But as of right now, everything is still on track to be heading down to $8000-$9000.
評論: We are on high alert right now. as we are approaching $9100 and are currently at $9650 as I am writing this. Something I would have expected at this range is shorts to be taking profit the further down we go. Instead, they are opening new short positions. Which means there is a bunch of "smart money" that is betting on Bitcoin making another fall. Since we are only $500 away from our target price of $9100, we need to be cautious on our entry. I would assume the "short moon" would be completed, and they would be working on closing those positions the closer we got to our target, instead, they are opening up new positions on a fall. So, we will watch closely and buy with caution.

I rarely making large buys. I buy in increments. This helps reduce losses if I am wrong. So, I'll be buying in chunks of 5% when we get to our target. That way if we blow passed it, I won't lose a tremendous amount.
評論: $9400: shorts still are not closing. Leaving more concern that our bottom may not be $9100. Still watching closely.
評論: We have broken below the $9300 mark, and short positions are still opening. My overall final target is still $8800. So we will see how this plays out. We are looking to get some confirmation by seeing the shorts take profits.
評論: We could be bottoming here for now. I'm looking at the possibility of a run to $10,500 before we turn right back around and head to $8,800.
評論: As expected, Bitcoin is throwing a little curve ball here by making a pretty bullish move up towards the $10,375region. It might not hit $10,500 on the dot, but should get into the $10,400's.

I then expect Bitcoin to turn around and head towards the $8,850 area, where we will find our true bottom for this pull back.

Others are calling for more down moves. However, I do not believe that to be the case. I firmly believe we will not go below $8,850.

I was making small entries in those 10,200s and 10,300s. I will be making more entries and completing my entry on the next pull back.

As always, trade at your own risk. Your failures are not my responsibility :)
評論: Regarding the previous update: I was making entries in the 9,200's and 9,300's, now the 10,200's!!!
評論: not the 10,200's*

Sorry for the typos and multiple updates.
評論: We are at our topping for this little rise up. Looking for a reversal back down now. Let's see how it plays out.
評論: This is where the market starts getting a little messy.

That little push up above $10,600 tells me that $9250 seems more likely to be the low. We are now watching for a breakout of the major downtrend channel, which would occur at $11,000.

While I have entered a nice chunk of my position back in the 9200s-9300s, I am going to wait for another pullback before I re-enter more. All these big green bars can be very dangerous to place buy orders into.
評論: After looking this over, one scenario I'm looking for is a rejection at $11,200-$11,400, with a pullback to around $9,900-$10,100. If we find support there at $9,900, I would strongly believe that's it, we are done going down, and it's time to run to $17,000 over the next two months.
評論: However, the market is very hard to read. And to make predictions on how it will behave over the course of just a few hours is extremely difficult. At this point, we need to just sort of watch what it's going to do. I will update once there is some more clarity.
評論: I believe we have clearly made our bottom at $9250. I am currently awaiting an entry opportunity with the remaining fiat that I have. I am looking at the $9500-$9900 region for these entries.

Many forecasters do not believe we will hit these targets. However, I trade by my rules, and for me to add to my position, this is where we need to go.

I do believe we are going to start our march to $17,000 now. It will be slow. It will not have the same velocity we saw from Feb 14 - Feb 20. This may create an opportunity to invest in alt coins. I will asses that at the time, as right now my current priority is Bitcoin as this chart seems pretty clear that we are going up. Whether or not alts will outpace that is going to have to be determined later.

Good luck everyone.
評論: Adam and Eve peak line hit at $9080.
評論: Adam and Eve peak line broken, looking at $8840 now. If that doesn't hold, I'm stepping away to watch what happens and will wait for more confirmation of a reversal.
交易進行: Full position entered. Highly risky.
評論: It doesn't look like it's holding. Dangerous market.
any update? Cheers
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It doesn't look like it's holding. Dangerous market.
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Adam and Eve peak line hit at $9080.
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10.2 seems like the bottom now? Couldn't break the resistance on this move down on the 4h.
+1 回覆
SecludedJ XanderCrypto
@XanderCrypto, Yes, it's looking pretty strong right now.
+1 回覆
XanderCrypto SecludedJ
@SecludedJ, My thoughts too, check the wave trend oscillator indicator if you get a chance. Seems to be fairly reliable across BTC's current move and it's just had a turning point again along with this positive candle progression!
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This is where the market starts getting a little messy.

That little push up above $10,600 tells me that $9250 seems more likely to be the low. We are now watching for a breakout of the major downtrend channel, which would occur at $11,000.

While I have entered a nice chunk of my position back in the 9200s-9300s, I am going to wait for another pullback before I re-enter more. All these big green bars can be very dangerous to place buy orders into.




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As expected, Bitcoin is throwing a little curve ball here by making a pretty bullish move up towards the $10,375region. It might not hit $10,500 on the dot, but should get into the $10,400's.

I then expect Bitcoin to turn around and head towards the $8,850 area, where we will find our true bottom for this pull back.

Others are calling for more down moves. However, I do not believe that to be the case. I firmly believe we will not go below $8,850.

I was making small entries in those 10,200s and 10,300s. I will be making more entries and completing my entry on the next pull back.

As always, trade at your own risk. Your failures are not my responsibility :)
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SecludedJ SecludedJ
@SecludedJ, This was supposed to say I made entries at $9,200s and $9,300s, not the $10,200s. Buying up here above $10,000 is dangerous, IMO.
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i think we bleed on 9800 again

new target 7800 - 7500
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