BTCUSD • 1H ABCD Completion at Key Confluence – Long Bias

5 天前

1) Macro → Micro Context
Daily / 4H Trend:

Still a clear up-trend on the daily & 4-hour: higher highs / higher lows above the 8, 34 & 55 EMA ribbon.

The $120 K–$121 K zone houses the largest Volume-by-Price node in two weeks, now acting as near-term support.

1H Context:

X→A: $106 100 → $118 950 impulsive run

A→B: ~15% pullback into $117 000 (≈0.15 XA)

B→C: 3.06× extension to $123 230

C→D: Retrace into $119 900–$120 300, matching 0.618 BC & ~80% XC Fib

2) Structural & Momentum Breakdown
AB=CD & Fib Confluence: D at $119 900–$120 300 aligns perfectly with both 0.618 BC and ~80% XC retracements.

1H Bullish Order Block: $119 900→$119 750

20-period SMA (mid-BB): ≃$120 100

VRVP High-Volume Node: Centered ≃$120 400

RSI (14): Holding 47–50 on the hour, flattening and poised to curl up

PVT: Flat-to-up on the pullback—sign of absorption

Volume: Contracts into D, then a slight uptick on the last 1 h bar

3) Exact Trade Plan
Entry: $119 400 - $120 300

Stop-Loss: $117 300 - $118 000

Take-Profit 1: $121 800 → $122 200

Take-Profit 2: $123 000 → $123 500

Optional “Hype” TP instead of TP 2: $125 000 → $126 500

(for a parabolic push if the upcoming House vote prints strong headlines — targets at 78.6%–100% BC extensions)

Entry Confirmation (any one):

1 h bullish engulfing or inside bar within entry zone

RSI (14) closes back above 50 on the hourly

PVT prints a higher low with renewed buy-side volume

4 天前

交易進行

CD leg was deeper retracement than I thought. Double down here and covered short. Set stoploss accordingly. But IM still bullish on BTC for this week.