Hello again!
Here is another easy analysis about the long-term direction of BTC.
People tend to look to the past to learn for the future. That makes a lot of sense because patterns that repeatedly occured during the past seem to repeat again in the future.
So lets do it. What is the same today, at least a little bit of the same, that happened in 2014.
First of all this is in my opinion the only logical comparisson you can do. Sure there are other similar patterns, but none of it had a ~65-70% correction on the daily chart.
So lets make a "right now analysis" on the logarithmic daily chart.
-The 200MA just shot over our heads with a good amount of momentum, this time the momentum is a bit more flat due to a longer and more steady run of BTC.
-We have the same down trend-canal line pattern
-We have a similar pattern of minor bull runs (red circles)
-We have found a momentarly bottom at -65%correction
-We have a very similar situation at the RSI
-We DON'T have similarities to the Volume pattern. This time the Volume was freakishly high which also means a lot of resistances built up.
Overall fundamental analysis of the market:
-After so many exponential waves of new money entering the market (also due to the monetary policy of some continents/countries-> for that look at my idea which is comparing QE of the ECB with the BTC Chart) we would need to see another exponential wave of new investors or money to enter the market. So what are factors for new money to enter the market, AFTER a major correction we are witnessing right now? The one and probably most important factor: A secured floor. This can only be established over several testings over a longer period of time after a crash(look at january 15 to August 15). So the next wave of new users have to be exponentionally as well. Ask yourself if BTC is ready for that.
The question is now: What would be an exit out of the 2014 pattern? If we have a strong run to 11k and than (more important) establish a very strong support again we are in the clear, but so far: BearBean is still here.
But always remember: Possibility has no memory.
Here is another easy analysis about the long-term direction of BTC.
People tend to look to the past to learn for the future. That makes a lot of sense because patterns that repeatedly occured during the past seem to repeat again in the future.
So lets do it. What is the same today, at least a little bit of the same, that happened in 2014.
First of all this is in my opinion the only logical comparisson you can do. Sure there are other similar patterns, but none of it had a ~65-70% correction on the daily chart.
So lets make a "right now analysis" on the logarithmic daily chart.
-The 200MA just shot over our heads with a good amount of momentum, this time the momentum is a bit more flat due to a longer and more steady run of BTC.
-We have the same down trend-canal line pattern
-We have a similar pattern of minor bull runs (red circles)
-We have found a momentarly bottom at -65%correction
-We have a very similar situation at the RSI
-We DON'T have similarities to the Volume pattern. This time the Volume was freakishly high which also means a lot of resistances built up.
Overall fundamental analysis of the market:
-After so many exponential waves of new money entering the market (also due to the monetary policy of some continents/countries-> for that look at my idea which is comparing QE of the ECB with the BTC Chart) we would need to see another exponential wave of new investors or money to enter the market. So what are factors for new money to enter the market, AFTER a major correction we are witnessing right now? The one and probably most important factor: A secured floor. This can only be established over several testings over a longer period of time after a crash(look at january 15 to August 15). So the next wave of new users have to be exponentionally as well. Ask yourself if BTC is ready for that.
The question is now: What would be an exit out of the 2014 pattern? If we have a strong run to 11k and than (more important) establish a very strong support again we are in the clear, but so far: BearBean is still here.
But always remember: Possibility has no memory.