botje11
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Long trade on Bitcoin, target 15K+

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
I am going long now, with a smaller position, wide stop to around 13.900, target is around 15.000, second target around 15.500. It is getting bought close to 14.000, so its getting some sort of buying support, or some are planning to get it higher again.
It did drop out of that smaller time frame upwards trendline , It could still drop, but the retrace was 120 points above the breakout price of that trend line . If it would be really weak, the retrace would be much less,about 14.200. I have seen this kind of set ups before, showing some bearish signs, but still go up.
評論: In the last update of my previous chart, i posted this pattern, telling it's almost neccesary to stay in this pattern to stay above the 14K. So far it's starting to make small higher highs and lows
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評論: Still looking good
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評論: The red area is an obvious resistance, it should not get below the blue area anymore
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評論: Seems to be making a smallbearish flag, i will close if it drops below the 14130 for a 40 point loss, and will wait for a better moment to get in again, if it stays above the 14K
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評論:
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The 13.900/14.000 did not hold, the bearish flag i talked about the previous update got completed. The H&S that was already forming also got completed! I thought the H&S would fail this time to push it higher, but the market was to weak. I had more than 200 points profit, but i expected more. now it's forming a bullish H&S with a target of 14.300. I will wait for it to break out of the red resistance area, and i will wait for it to pull back again before i go long!
評論: First small position is in at 13550, second on 13.500 and third around 13.450. Total is is still a small position!
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評論: I am lowering my stop sto 13.500, the H&S is turning into a bearish rising wedge now!.
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評論:
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Again a small loss, after being ahead 200+ points again. It just does not want to go up it seems!
評論: I just went short
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評論: Stop is around 13.800, we could see another drop towards the 12.900 low again. around 13.100/13.000 i will probably close half and let the other run. Lat update for now
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評論: small flag, and a big H&S could bring us back to around 13K, but the market is very very weak!!!
評論:
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評論: Bitfinex is holding back the other exchanges
評論: https://cointelegraph.com/news/just-one-person-found-to-have-caused-bitcoins-jump-from-150-to-1000-in-2013
What a big surprise (LOL) maybe, just maybe this will wake a few people up, about how this market is being steered, being created! So far it worked perfectly, the whole world as addicted at the moment. Self fulfulling profecy at it's best!
Nice to see conformation of a few things being confirmed by others what i have been talking about for months now. It is new to me that it goes back years ago, but no susprise!
評論: I don't know what the problem at Bitfinex is, but it's holding them all back, difference is almost 500 points now, in % the biggest i have seen in months!
評論: The same flag at Bitstamp
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評論: My guess is a drop towards 11.300/11.400, and maybe, maybe it could go up again from there
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評論: It has to break this line, to get out of the extreme negative, otherwise we will see 9.000ish very soon
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評論:
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This could become a wedge, wich means it could spike up any minute now. a drop below 10K means 9.000
評論: If it has the strength to make a bear trap, it could still cool down and get a bit higher, with a spike up. otherwise this is just a retracement
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評論: And there is the false breakout, this does not mean it is over!! Could be, but only that it will cool down and slow down
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評論: And there is the big upspike, This is almost a 100% copy of the 3000. bottom half year ago. There i got stopped out by 30 points, and 10 minutes later it was up 800 points (thats 25% in a few minutes!)
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評論:
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Bitstamp seems to be making a nice H&S, but Bitfinex does not look that pretty, it's staring to loose momentem a littile bit at the moment, the highs are getting a bit less high, first signs that it can drop again (a bit).
The last day, each time i said bitfinex was pulling down the other exchanges, now we know what this means after seeing today. At the moment the same is happening, so big chance we can see another drop, probably above the 10K, but thats all just guessing
評論: Rising wedge
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評論:
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評論: Now i am shorting it at 11380
評論: My stop is the red area
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評論: I have lowered stop to entry level, target is 10850
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評論: I am out :)
評論: 2 options now, a bigger bullish H&S, wich can take us to the 13K, where the right shoulder is in the making now, but i think it's already to low now. Or a smaller bearish H&S within this right shoulder, wich has the biggest chance. A drop below 10.600, will mean another drop.
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all those wedges are a sign there are more people looking to get out than get in. I'm waiting for the big dump
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botje11 the_sunship
@the_sunship, Your probably right. I said a few weeks ago it's probably 'game over' for Bitcoin, but short term there were some bullish signs. And sentiment can change everyday in cryptoland. Could very well be things are changing fundamentally with Bitcoin. At least, from all the friends and family and all the people around me, the last month nobody is talking about Bitcoin anymore, only about the Alts.
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@botje11, I agree, I hear the same sentiment. It will be an interesting paradigm shift when the bitcoin market cap is not the top anymore. That day is coming quickly in my opinion. Eth and other more flexible technologies will surpass BTC, and once it happens the door will open for many others to over take it as well.
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botje11 the_sunship
@the_sunship, that will be interesting, in december we could saw the first signs when the alts coins were making massive gains in market cap! I don't believe in crypto (so far) in general, but i have not mastered the whole market to have a 100% convinced oppinion. But like you say, probably when the first one can become King, probably more will fight for the throne.
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@botje11, @the_sunship it's true that alts are draining money but the fundamentals of bitcoin as a decentralized reserve of value backed by pow remain. You can't compare bitcoin as it is now to alts soon to be projects backed by pos ... i'll give lightning network a chance (and 6 to 9 months) before to declare BTC deceased... What percentage of btc do you hold in your protfolio (i'm around 60%BTC, 15%ETH) ?
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botje11 nicolas.papon
@nicolas.papon, I have no crypto whatsoever, only the BTC wich i need to trade with. I try to hedge my position as much as possible. I only make short term trades ont BTC and on alts, i don't want any for the long run. I don't believe in any of this. As you can read in my EURUSD chart a while back, i am convinced that the crypto market will get the blame for the soon (1 or 2 years) to happen economic decline/crisis worldwide.
Ofcourse i would like returns of 1000% in 2 days, or 5000% in a week. But that's not realistic. You know what the biggest problem is, it's just like the casino, when you have tasted the big wins, you get used to it and you wont be able to live without it. So 99% of the people who have been winning the last year, will loose everything again, maybe not this month or this year, but they will. I have paid my dues during the Internet hype 20 years ago. I am just trying to make a few good trades every month, nothing more nothing less.
A few weeks ago all the amateurs around me who just started, were all happy and amazed, the last week they are all complaining.
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@botje11, thx for answering ! holding few btc during a couple of years worked better for me than trying to trade them since last december (Thanks to you i limited my losses) ;-)

I couldn't find your previous comment but i'd like to answer your point anyway : I'm not sure that crypto currencies will be blamed for the next monetary desorders since :
1°) speculation and over investment is nothing new
2°) cryptos have (yet) nothing to do with states debts, abysmal commercial deficits, or lack of banking regulation
3°) their innovations will have been adopted by traditional economical actors before things start to go south

If you expect an economic crisis (fiat to go down and/or bank to fail) in the coming years, why don't you cash out part of your benefits in btc or any other alt ?
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