This picture confirmes what i had mentioned in my previous 2 analysis on Bitcoin , the moves are getting bigger and faster. That is normally what should happen in a . Desperate moves, up and down, with lower volume!.
Normally it should drop downwards and most times it makes a retrace back to the former , but the Bitcoin usually makes a retraces that gets to high, like in this chart. No guarnatee ofcourse, but i give that option 75% chance, because there is still a lot of greed in this market.
The target of this pattern is about 9000. Depending on how strong the corrections up will be, i will maybe adjust that target.
Before dropping under that support line, it could stay in this channel en make a higher high, trying to break the 12.000. So this trade, for me, will be with a smaller ammount than normal because my target is about 2.500 points, but my stop will be about 400/500 points higher. I will probably add when it drops below 11.500. Under 11.200 i see the first big support. Under this level i will add again. But if it gets here i will put my stop lower while i increase my position. So the risks don't get higher than the initial trade.
Bitcoin has already had many surprises up it's sleeve this year, so always be aware adjust when needed!
For me it says the following:
This looks like a distribution fase, where smart money is trying to get out for the highest prices without pushing the market down to soon. Because of all the (relative) small buy orders, it seems like the average Joe is getting into this "free money without limit" market. As long as this buying keeps coming, it won't make a big drop.
To be clear, at first i am only talking about a short term drop, not that an extreme crash will appear. It could be possible ofcourse, but my guess is, after a big drop it will get bought again and will probably make a new ATH. I told the same a week ago
As long as there will be buyers who are prepared to pay the highest prices, they will do this dance over and over again! Because exactly this is free money for the 'smart money'in this market.
Think about all the big corrections the last few months, followed by an extreme up spike. Not giving the average Joe a real chance to even get into this market for a good price, and probably pushing most out of it who are using leverage.
Untill the CME Future market enters this world, than even the crypto believers will also start to learn what smart money is. Because these markets will get manipulated even more. The bigger this market gets, the more difficult it can be controlled, so therefore i don't think prices of 100K what some people believe in, will ever be seen.
The first signs of weakness,but it is still within the bigger pattern, so without a big spike down with high volume, this all could still be seen as a consolidation to push it higher eventually, towards the 12K
And than all of a sudden, after a minute or so, there was a big sell order on Bitstamp pushing it down 100 points at once. It went up almost just as fast.
But i got this feeling, like someone was trying to push the market down, it did not work on Bitfinex, so after 15 min they gave up, and within a minute they tried to do it on Bitstamp. It could all be a coincidence ofcourse, but i dont think so. I am wachting the orders books more closely lately, because i want to see if there's some sort of pattern at certain times.
I was afraid of this, so close already to the 12K level, i was afraid they would not let this opportunity go. But it also offers a chance to add to the position. That's why i said from the beginning, a smaller position for a bigger move, but also because of this. It should get above the red area, at least not close above it on the hourly chart
First small sign of weakness (all day LOL)
Difference between Bitstamp and Bitfnex is more than 200 points. Weakness or strenght?
Above 14K espect at least 14.500. But buying volume has decreased very hard the last hour. Sign of weakness. I think buyers are waiting for another drop to buy in hard again!
not looking good, second attempt seems to be falling short. Under 13400 wil confirm another drop
Is it going? Is it going
Is it going? Is it going
I don't know what you're looking for
15.800 is an important support now!
Because of the upside outbreak of this pattern, it will probably go to 17.200
This is the even bigger H&S i was talking about, I dont know if it will happen, but i will trade on it. I will enter it between 15.200 and 15.600!.
It has amazed me many times when it was going up, maybe it's the first time it will amaze me going down. Stop is around 15.800
Maybe it's this one :) LOL
I hope so for you, but please be a bit more realistic. If you have 100K, 500K or much much more, you would really just ride it out? There are enough poeple with not only a few hundred of thousand dollars in this market. These big drops it can make, are very scary to just sit on your hands an do nothing if you have a big position. As for now, it looks very strong and nothing can stop it. This market will get manipulated (even more), only question is when.
hahaha yes it is now :), but 50K is just insane, no extremes before the CME futures enter this market. BUT, it has amazed me so far, so everything is possible. For me it does not matter, i only do short trades on Bitcoin. But what i meant with realistic, your drops of less than 200, that's just not possible. 20K was also not realistic for me, but not anymore :). I hope the best for you
Yes this trade was a loosing trade. I act on patterns i see, in combination with the lower volume and the small buy orders, i knew it could still get to 12K or a bit higher but after seeing that a correction would come. But i was wrong