BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Whats up traders,

Here we have BTC/USD on the 4H chart.

I had so many people messaging me today, and each message said just about the same thing "Why aren't we long now?" "Price is moving near top of resistance zone , why are we not in?" "Bitcoin is going to break highs and we will miss the move". This is something I hear often and my answer is simple... Just because something looks like it is ABOUT to happen, it doesn't mean it is.

Too many traders have the "roulette" mentality. What I mean by this is, in Roulette, most people (if they get a 0 for example) will now believe a higher number is coming due to them believing the game is run of some type of belief system. They are trying to predict the future with thoughts that do not made any statistical sense! It is the same with trading, just because price is nearing the resistance break, so what? It doesn't mean it's going to break to the highs, it just means it is moving up in a zone I consider non significant until broken. The risks of buying in a resistance zone are immediate. You risk buying into market noise, and not momentum, it turns around and we're out.

The moral to the above is: Just be patient. What is meant to be, will be. And if you add this moral to my number 1 trading rule: "Trade what you see and not what you think" then you will become a much better trader just by taking this small piece of advice.

Disclaimer: I am not claiming that price will not break out from where price is now (I even predicted this is my previous analysis). For this idea I am just focusing on what to do if the correction DOES occur, and this idea fully supports scenario 2 of my idea publish made yesterday.
(See my related ideas below for my previous BTC/USD analysis.


Going forward, BTC/USD looks like it is correcting at least for the short term. Price initially had some upside move, but this move lost momentum as it approached the peak of the horizontal resistance zone at 17550 to 16630. I am now expecting price to hit this level before a nice upside move.

Will price break out of resistance now? Or will it correct to the above level and correct? We will soon find out.

Will be updating this analysis if it gets enough attention.

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I'm wondering, what happened with the 2 monthly cycle wit a 38% correction in between, seems like btc is due for a bigger correction becuz last one wasn't deep enough and was up to quikly.
Looked more like a shookout than e correction
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@MDVizzy, You could be right.

Thanks for sharing.
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hello I see it this morning as well design it and if it did not break resistance it was clear that it would touch again the trend line is a healthy correction to clear positions and to expel new people. Good graphics
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TomProTrader JavierSanchezR
@JavierSanchezR, Totally agree. A downside move will shove the hype traders (Usually over excited novices) make them despondent, and once they've given it and thrown in the towel, the buys begin again.
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agree
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@isaeed, Hope this analysis helps.
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isaeed TomProTrader
@TomProTrader, to me i assume the trader himself wants to profit too, so if he didnt buy there must be a good reason
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I think its because many people are daily traders and wanted to made fast money(me too), and bcs of that roulette mentality i almost lose all of my money but im learning slowly about trading and have recovered my loss. Thank you tom for contributing, and do you have thoughts for ETC?
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TomProTrader arvincash88
@arvincash88, That's really good to hear. Keep it up!

I will have more of an idea once Bitcoin ends its correction and begins trending again (It's been a tough one last week or so)
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it is possible
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