After about a day of absolutely boring sideways, something interesting happened that took everyone by surprise: we broke back up, in-fact retraced 100% to the previous local top.
This is interesting, because people who have their cute little wave counts (including me) assumed that after the drop from 3800, this marks an a-b-c correction finished and the downtrend should continue.
Infact, every trader was thinking this.
But, it didn't.
We broke up, everyone shorted the top of ~3820, the wick proves that. And yet, it held. It didn't drop, it didn't even retrace 50%, and now it's quickly moving up further - ready to break the main downtrend line. Something very interesting is happening.
Currently there are 25,000 shorts vs 15,000 longs on bitfinex. Slowly, more and more good news is coming out. Malaysia legalised bitcoin, Russia is working on a framework for Bitcoin, venezuela is adopting bitcoin en masse to become the world's first "completely" bitcoin economy.
This creates the perfect scenario for a short squeeze and _another_ bull run towards the top of this channel.
As soon as that green line is broken, it's game over.
Currently there are 25,000 shorts vs 15,000 longs on bitfinex.......Where to find it out?
Puetas7
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Só que não ainda
kayb100
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Hi Jack, thanks for the insights, do you have any tips to analyze a similar breakout that happened on the 3rd july? When it broke a 20 dayish downtrend with a large outbreak up, then followed by much deeper than before drops 7 days later. I'm not sure which indicators would be good to compare yesterdays upward trend that broke resistance to the 3rd july upward trend that broke that resistance. Any tips for how to compare would be greatly appreciated.
Many thanks, oh and below is the july chart im referring to.
idontknowwhat
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@kayb100, breaking the downtrend line doesn't neccessarily guarantee the bear trend is over - it just puts us back in bullish territory. I'd be especially cautious right now, you never know when it could fall out of the sky. It looks like it hasn't held above the larger downtrend (from 5k) for now.
In this particular instance there was some huge fud which caused the price to dump that low.
mytorc
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Big thank you for this! Prompted me to revisit the charts and literally buy-in to the take off as it was starting