elshanti

Bitcoin ..Gartner Hype Cycle

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Credit Goes To Michael B.Casey
A Must Read Paper "Speculative Bitcoin             Adoption/Price Theory": https://medium.com/@mcasey0827/speculative-bitcoin-adoption-price-theory-2eed48ecf7da
評論: Lucky if you can catch both the top and the dip as they only last very short 5-10 % of the cycle time.. the rest is boring plateau
評論: A MUST WATCH IN CASE YOU ARE ARE TOO BUSY/LAZY TO READ THE ARTICLE :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eEcKbGwkrU
About that video, using linear chart on such a long period. I do think any serious person would take that idea seriously just because its valid so far. And he is also using the log scale to compare the google trends?

Nice double standards. Theory is for the speculators, those that read a book and they desperately want to find an example in the real world.
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@Acel, its not about log vs linear. He is referring to the similarities of phases across different crashes..I dont think he did it on purpose..you can see more details in his paper. Also fractals do scale logarithmicly by default so I dont see a problem here..what surprises me more is many in Tradingview now are drawing bullish trendlines in linear charts because those same lines already broken in log scale.. LOL
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Acel elshanti
@elshanti, I get that, but because the image looks like the bubble cycle it doesnt mean that we are on when he thinks, cause simply he doesnt know the future.

On the linear scale the phase that we are curently at can be first sell-off/bear trap or bull trap/return to "normal".

I think somewhere in the begining he mentioned that history doesnt repeat but it rhymes and during the whole presentaion he tried to prove that history repeats. Really?
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@Acel, you are missing something here..he also mentions that a previous cycle “bubble cycle” represents a bear trap of the upcoming bull cycle “bubble” @ around 19:05..
nobody knows the future but this guy predicted this cycle back early in 2016 you can apply math statistics to eliminate the noise and get better predictions..

here is a bonus fractal for you “the oldest bitcoin bubble fractal”
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elshanti elshanti
@elshanti, also I have a linear comparison chart between price chart vs google trends.. and they are identical as well.. he might picked the log price for better clearer” representation..
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elshanti elshanti
@elshanti, linear
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@Acel, 2013 was a bubble but it was the bear trap of the 2014 .. thast what is he saying !
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Love the colors!
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It's really interesting. I think worth noting is he ends the piece by stating he's given up trying to call the top on this, because it's just so difficult.
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Nice chart. That article is worth a read isn't it.
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