In my last published chart I suggested that it was in final down leg of this bearish cycle.
Well, as you all know that low was anticipated to form around 240-220 to complete falling wedge. However the price sliced through that to 150 zone.
In falling wedge last leg could overshoot due to the fact that wedge is narrowing. But in this case it seems that the breach or overshoot is too significant and disproportional to rest of the pattern.
Additionally, the bounce from 150 - 300 in not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag.
Hence, it called for a review and I conclude that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3.
Therefore whilst not changing the analysis completely, I have adjust the counts to incorporate the plunge to 150 and feel that it was a wave 3 low. The current price action since is part of wave 4 retracement, which appears have 1st zigzag to upside to 300 and that is being retrace. Incompletion of which the second leg of the zigzag is due that might form possible double top around 300 -320 area.
[I have been sharing this provisional revision in the Bitcoin chat for sometime (see snapshot below) but was reluctant to publish it for the sake of it. Some clarity would help top publish meaningful update. Now though it seems].
Once this complete we will most likely see another decline from approx 300 -320 area and possibly drop to 100-80 zone.
Assuming that the move from Jan 2014 high is part of larger wave C of Ending Diagonal (falling wedge) of 3-3-3-3-3 construction.
This is probably the best outcome for BTCUSD to form a major low around 100-80. In fact the worry is that that might not be the final low from which another Bullish Cycle could develop to retest all time high. The reason is that on log scale the price has dropped below the long term rising trendline support and it seems at present that to regain that, it will be a difficult task. In which case we have very long side way correction between Nov 2013 high and 100-80 that could last for another year or more before the Final Low could be in place.
I say that because our larger counts from early history has been on assumption which gave us reason to label Nov 2013 high as Wave 3 but in realty it could be wave 5 top. However we will just keep that in the back of our mind for now as we track our adjusted road map to expected low in the region of 100- 80.
I could host a live session next week to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your moments and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled and to obtain a link to join me.
As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement.
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
You will be able to interact with me during the sessions using my chat room at tradingview tradingview.com/chat/ However I will only be able to check for comments and questions at certain intervals or at the end.
Hope may of you will be able to attend.
Look forward to it.
Thanks you.
alex.falko.7
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Thanks, DanV. Very informative, as usual.
WyckoffMode
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Thanks for the time and effort put into the chart and the narrative. I'm always interested in a chart perspective review. I do that a lot myself but mostly with my chart on bitcoinwisdom.
Dan V - "In my last published chart I suggested that it was in final down leg of this bearish cycle. Well, as you all know that low was anticipated to form around 240-220 to complete falling wedge. However the price sliced through that to 150 zone."
ProudClown - I feel the reason we have sliced through is because of the much lower price of BTC and more buyers to afford this lower price. As the price gets lower more buyers will be able to afford BTC and buy in. Look at the resistance we have had at 200 to 220. Bear whales have come to the conclusion it is hard to drop it much lower because of more competition buying back in at lower price levels with not enough BTC for sell to fill in the buy orders. Hence, all of the sideways waves with consolidation moves between 220 and 240 along each wave. I personally believe the whales are in protect mode for the moment. They are fearful to dump it much lower than 220 out of fear of the competition buying back in at levels lower than 220.
Dan V - "In falling wedge last leg could overshoot due to the fact that wedge is narrowing. But in this case it seems that the breach or overshoot is too significant and disproportional to rest of the pattern. Additionally, the bounce from 150 - 300 in not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag. Hence, it called for a review and I conclude that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3.
ProudClown - Yes, I believe it called for a review because of what I mentioned previously. Prices have fallen to a level now that it opens up room for more bullish buyers. Bears, are in protect mode. They can dump if they want to. However, they will find once again there will be much more competition to buy back in to those who "might" be willing to sell and take a loss. Most holders of BTC are willing to hold their BTC at these levels because most feel it will be going up. Therefore, we will not have downward pressure from Bears added to the downward pressure that comes from miners and retailers. I believe the bears are beginning to see they too must become bullish soon at these prices or miss out. Yes, they can dump here if they like. However, they will face lots of competition buying back in.
Dan V - "Therefore whilst not changing the analysis completely, I have adjust the counts to incorporate the plunge to 150 and feel that it was a wave 3 low. The current price action since is part of wave 4 retracement, which appears have 1st zigzag to upside to 300 and that is being retrace. Incompletion of which the second leg of the zigzag is due that might form possible double top around 300 -320 area. [I have been sharing this provisional revision in the Bitcoin chat for sometime (see snapshot below) but was reluctant to publish it for the sake of it. Some clarity would help top publish meaningful update. Now though it seems]. Once this complete we will most likely see another decline from approx 300 -320 area and possibly drop to 100-80 zone."
ProudClown - BTC is not a commodity that is destined for $100 or $80 again. It is in an overall up trend. It just started out the gate ahead of it’s time with little usability. It is getting used more than what it was in January, 2014. BTC has more buyers as of late as well. The competition is high to buy BTC at prices lower than 220. Especially lower than 200. More are beginning to see below 200 as a bargain and the Bears know this. Look at how quickly it came up from 162 to 200 on January 14th in your charts. I believe we are very close to finding bottom as we approach the bottom of the bowl. The date of the bottom of the bowl is marked with the two blue lines drawn in the chart at March 12th and Aprtil 4th. The link: i.imgur.com/litVABa.jpg
I do not see a downward turn to $100 or $80. If we go by your chart [Not paying attention to the up and only the down lines] eventually, this thing just runs into the ground and dies. Eventually, we must begin putting emphasis on the upward trend lines. Both of us know charts cannot predict future price. Especially as far out as 6 months in advance. They can assist to predict a future trend but even the trend can change if one considers the product, its use, who uses it, how many use it and many other specifics behind the product. That's what I'm looking at. The chart can be seen as "the box." I'm thinking outside "the box."
WyckoffMode
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I'm curious? Who gave the negative review but no comment?
WyckoffMode
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Cool.... Another negative comment. Anymore negatives are welcome... Thanks!!!
DanV
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Thanks for your comments. You could be right about the low.
However, the fact it ranging between 220-240 as you point out is possibly showing buyers and sellers fairly well matched. Once we have imbalanced the price will move accordingly.
I have no specific reason for wishing the price to drop to $100 or even to zero if that is what my chart appears to imply, except that the low I anticipated based on EW rules around 240-220 did not hold and upon review it seems the wave 3 might have extended. If that conclusion is correct then it is possible that we will congest in the price range between where we are and possible 300-320 as the upper zone.
On completion, we will need wave 5 to complete. That could be equal low and form double bottom or drop lower. I will see what happens at that zone. If more buying pressure is evident then we could form a significant low there or it will drop even lower.
So one step at a time for me rather than run too far ahead. Thanks again, I appreciate your willingness to share.
WyckoffMode
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I know you don't want it to fall to $100, Dan. I'm pretty sure of that. Judging from your views and publications, you have been at this with BTC for a while. So, you know as well as I do that things can change quickly. I just know also as the price gets cheaper, it prices more people in to buy. So, those who previously wanted to dump in hopes of a panic sell and buy back in to accumulate more coins have less chance of accumulating with more competition from others being priced in at these lower prices.
I'm only looking at what other side affects can be brought about with price of BTC lower.
Yes, these things do take time to play out. That's why I try to get would be traders not to focus so much on the "now" and pulled into the panic and the emotions. Trust your judgement and let it play out. Still have stop loss buys in place to make up for a possible turn of events against you and have more USD on the ready to buy more if we have blood in the streets at 172. We will see a lot of up and down between now and November. But I believe we stay on an average of 215 to 245 between now and November if we have no big news.
WyckoffMode
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I'm not saying we never go below 215 and not saying we never go above 245. Only saying the average between 215 and 245 between now and November without good news.
DanV
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I understand. If as you anticipate an average price of 215-245 then it is possible that in this congestion instead of a simple zigzag I have shown in my chart it could be come more complex on as annotated on chart which might offer more trading opportunity or frustrate many specially if we see sudden quick moves. It will keep us on our toes for sure.
Title - Bitcoin - It's likely prospects for 2015 and beyond.
Plan to cover the following:
Reviewing price action leading to Nov 2013 high and exploring how the bearish cycle to date fits in.
What conclusions could be drawn of its prospects for the remainder of 2015 and beyond purely from technical analysis view point.
Approximately 1hr and 30 min (however this will depend on how long Q&A will take)
Youtube Link - youtube.com/watch?v=CfFxr7sabPk
You will be able to interact with me during the sessions using my chat room at tradingview tradingview.com/chat/ However I will only be able to check for comments and questions at certain intervals or at the end.
Hope may of you will be able to attend.
Look forward to it.
Thanks you.