Over the recent days BTC has recovered nicely since our last dip to under $3,000. Many people believe that the bear trend is over, and the next stop is an ATH. However, I'm not entirely convinced yet. I believe that this market has been driven primarily by emotions the last couple days. Hence the massive selloff to under $3000, and then the instant panic buyback to over $4000. This makes the market very unstable, and this is where the massive volatility is coming from. That being said, instability COULD send us to an ATH, however, it could just as easily send us the other direction. Now, if I were to pick a side, I would say instability indicates something unhealthy, and unhealthy markets lead to bear trends.
My Analysis: As you can see in the chart above we have yet to cross the major downward trendline, which means that I will remain bearish UNTIL that line is broken. There is also a possible Gartley Formation, which is an additional indication that we could be seeing another sell off.
My Plan(s) of Action: Option 1: I plan to wait for BTC to once again test the downward trendline, where I will wait for a candlstick sign of reversal, and then trgger a short. Option 2: There has already been a sign of divergence at the possible top location, so IF BTC fails to reach my Ideal Entry I will wait for a break outside of the triangle to trigger my short. There is a possibility that we will find support around the $3880 mark so depending on when/if we break, I may wait for a cross of that line for confirmation of reversal. Option 3: IF BTC closes a candle above the downward trendline I will cancel all short orders and likely place a long. This indicate that BTC has additional room for upward movement.
Current targets are all listed above. Regardless of direction I will post additional target levels as soon as we confirmation of direction.
Extended Target of $2665; this target becomes active IF we fall out of the pennant. Which this marks the finish line for an ABCD pattern which just happens to rest on a longterm trendline. Coincidence? Time will tell. I do not think this is highly likely atm, I am just stating a possibility.
I plan to take profit and wait for re-entry at all targets posted above.
This trade could go either way, so I advise to trade with caution, and to always wait on confrimation. I wish you all good luck!
DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
交易進行
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Trade Closed, Currently waiting on re-entry
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3 additional bearish patterns. currently waiting on a break in the wedge for a scalp none the less
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here are some key levels to watch out for
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Throughout the chat a lot of people have been calling either a falling wedge (bullish) or a descending triangle triangle (bearish). However these are primarily found on 5-15min time frames ... If you step back even to the 1 hour time frame you will see a different story. Below is a snapshot of a falling channel which is a very bearish signal until there is a break out of the top. Now that being said, if you then go back to the lower timeframes you will be able to spot wedges, triangles, channels, etc within this large channel. These are all good indications of short term price movement.
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$3650 is a possible support area. trade with caution. If this fails we could hit the next fib level @ $3560 before getting a solid bounce.
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first target for bounce
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Adjusted First Target: $3460; right at the C leg of the XABCD
We exceeded my bounce target in the chart above, however profit is still profit. I still remain very bearish even though we just made a higher low. However, this could change at anytime. So regardless if you are bear or bull please trade with caution. Always wait for clear signs before entering a trade.
I missed my short re-entry at $3800, but with me having a very busy weekend, it is probably best. I will try to update within the next 24 hours. Also, is anyone still following this idea or should I make a new one?
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Levels to watch out for
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just broke the bull flag. So we could see some upward movement here. likely test the .5 and then maybe the .618. Longterm target of 3460 still remains until we pass the reversal zone
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We have entered the reversal zone. could go either way here.
You are a threat! The big guys are watching your short ideas and are trying to squeeze you out :P lol
oh92
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@agency, haha thank you! lets not hope that happens! :D
jeancrient
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Nice very nice
BrenFren
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I like this.. very slick.. well presented and correct by the looks of it... nice job.
undersun
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You should make a new one and keep going (after awhile, I have to scroll down to far to get to updated comments) - I like your charts and commentary. Keep it up!
NemoTrader
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Any chance I could request you take a look at Monero, it's my largest holding and I value your opinion.
oh92
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@NemoTrader, I will try to take a look at it tomorrow! However a good rule of thumb is to follow the BTC market. The top 10 altcoins trend, tend to follow BTC's. So if BTC is in an uptrend/downtrend LTC, ETH XMR, DASH, etc tend to be as well.