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BenMandelbrot
2018年4月5日下午1點23分

BTC Market Analysis 

Bitcoin / DollarBitfinex

描述

In 2014 bear market, when BTC found new lows it retraced 0.618 fib and continued to go down again again.
After It settled around $160-200, 1 year accumulation period started. (January and October 2015)

It created a new bullish channel at the end of accumulation period (Green channel)
Until Bitcoin reached 20k, all of the retraces (7 times) found support at 0.618 fib.

If we found support at 0.618 fib ($12.347) we could say that bull trend still in play. Now trend turned bearish like 2014 market.
After the first low at 6k, it retraced 0.618 fib ($11.350) and rejected again.

I think we are ready to find new lows before start a new rally. Potential new low should be around $4500 then we can go and test 11k again. (0.618 fib of new low)
When we draw lines (blue) from the 2014 top to the tops of 2017 trend (Pink channel), you can see the supports around

$9800 (broken)
$6400 (still alive)
$3800-4000

In the current bearish trend we also have descending broadening wedge and big falling wedge.
評論
FOMOSAPIEN1
why don't i get the same answers when i pull my fibs from 162.30?
jaxxman
Amazing analysis. Thanks Ben - you genius
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