In an earlier analysis, I posted 3 scenarios (shallow Barrier Triangle and Flat, and deeper Failing Wedge) that were possible based upon the Alternation Guideline that follows the principle that Wave II and Wave IV (or W2 and W4) alternate form. Since Wave II was a sharp and deep correction, correcting the initial run to 1143, all the way down to 157.50, Wave IV should be a more shallow correction. The worst case scenario is a deeper correction to 1144, to not overlap into Wave I territory. However, given Wave II was deep, Wave IV should be a shallow correction, probably not retracing more than 31.8% of the entire move from Wave II to Wave III. That would put the likely depth not more than the 1826 price level.
Based upon more recent price action, a rising wedge is being traced out, which may result in Wave B of IV achieving sub-critical levels, if the pattern holds. Sadly, this point B of IV and the rising wedge result in a lower termination than the least shallow alternative, the Barrier Triangle, needs to play out. For a Barrier Triangle to form, a more rapid ascent to climb above Wave (A) of A of IV, above the 2800 level, is required.
Similarly, for a Flat to form, a more rapid ascent to near the old high at 2980, needs to quickly initiate and break out of the rising wedge before normal termination (points (d) and (e)) and below the 2800 level. The Flat correction probability is falling quickly.
All of this is pointing to the possibility of a Falling Wedge, or another variety of triangle to form, for the final leg of the correction, Wave of C of IV.
Another day (or two)), and new information makes older forecasts seem pretentious. Predicting how a correction will play out, is much more difficult than forecasting motive waves. All I can say with some certainty, is there are likely months, maybe a year, more to come of painful choppy action to come. The bull run of Wave III that began in January 2015 and lasted 2 & 1/2 years, will not be corrected by a short Wave IV correction. I'm revising my counts to indicate that primary corrective Wave A is still underway, and should have a retest of the 23.6% retracement level, possibly going deeper and reaching the 31.8% level. And as for timing? That's anyone's guess. Weeks to Months. It began on June 12, so it is not even a month old yet.
評論
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From the top of Wave III
評論
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As the first month of the Wave III correction moves forward, ultimately concluding Wave IV, here's an update. Only a couple, three or four months to go, if we're lucky. After Wave A of IV completes, we get a relief rally up during Wave B of 4, but then find another low to complete Wave C of 4. And guess what traders, those original 3 scenarios? The might all be back on the table if the current descent stops just around the original low of Jun 15. Aren't corrections fun?
Nice, first detailed Elliott analysis I have seen on Trading View. I have us just completing a intermediary 3rd wave, making a diagonal triangle 4th wave correction.
RogueDave
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@Staircase2Mars, Thank you for the compliment! It's much appreciated. I am surprised there are not more people using EW here, but it is what it is. Here are my summaries of Waves I, II, & III. (Sorry about the clutter in the upper right corner.)
RogueDave
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@Staircase2Mars, Or if you prefer it in Normal scaling, and not in Log scale:
Staircase2Mars
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@RogueDave, thoughts on your count. I have trouble making an Elliott Wave between end of wave II and 1 of wave III. I am wondering if point C/II could be later, even if this is not the lowest point.
Wave (4) in 3 seems to invade price territory of wave (1).
Staircase2Mars
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Here is my count. The main issue I have with it is the bitfinex hack, and how small wave 4 invaded price territory of wave 1.
Staircase2Mars
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RogueDave
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@Staircase2Mars, Shouldn't your (4) of 3 be labeled (3) of 3, and your (5) of 3 be labeled (4) of 3?
@Staircase2Mars, Here is a revision to the count that works pretty well. except the hack you pointed out, but under this count, it's between a sub-sub w1 and sub-sub w4, and the intrusion is only 2 pts.
Revised count of W III waves W II thru W1 & 2 of III
Here's the rest of W III from the end of W1 & 2, with sub counts for motive W 3 & 5.
Staircase2Mars
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@RogueDave, thats certainly possible, and makes wave 1 and wave 5 nearly identical in length