If you've followed me for a while, you may have noticed that my calls/analysis have mostly been very accurate with consistency.
I usually focus on intra-day targets rather than long-term view.
Since I've recently been asked a lot "What do I think is Bitcoin's bottom", I've decided to have a look into this.
At the moment, I believe that Bitcoin's "next" bottom should be between the 6100-5900 $USD price ranges.
I can't say if this will be the lowest point we will see Bitcoin at for the rest of the year. I haven't attempted to analyze that far ahead.
My guess on Bitcoin's next moves:
As mentioned in my last post, I was looking out for a "small correction" on BTC . So far, that appears to be shaping up.
I'm looking for a C-wave up to ~6605, & will short to 6400-6300, if things are looking ok.
Note that it is risky to enter Long to attempt riding C-wave up, in the case that this correction already completed, and we are on the next wave down.
Use stop-losses if attempting this.
It's safer to short the top @ ~6605.
Safest to look for price dropping before shorting.
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FAILED however to sustain bounce after drop target.
BTC Flash Crashed and Pumped 300 points 6400 to 6100 & back.
This could be good news for us however, as it may accelerate the completion of this down-trend.
Prices fell into my Altcoin Long orders & I sold bounce at nice profits.
Rode waves to 6605 & shorted there to drop zone.
Didn't play out 100% as expected with the flash Dump/Pump, but, 100% of trades were very profitable. :)
I hope some of you took nice profits on these calls.
I've had 6100 as a major support & 6350 drop zone target since days ago, have a look:
I didn't expect the flash Dump/Pump, so I didn't zoom out to show 6100.
I'll wait for things to settle a bit before analyzing next targets. Not safest to trade right now.
(Not the best time to predict after that 300 point Flash Dump/Pump, I'll still share some thoughts).
BTC either drops here or pushes a little more to ~6405 first.
Then likely down to ~6000 or double-bottom ~6100.
I think it doesn't get below 5875 for now.
I'll be going Long on orders after this current drop I'm expecting.
It's current movement is uncertain; it's best to wait for a decisive move before entering trades.
Once I get more clarity I'll try to update with a count and/or targets.
However, the case for the bearish scenario (breaking downward) is that Altcoins had a decent little run up today, and look like they need to retrace a bit with $BTC for another push up tomorrow.
Moments after I said this, Altcoins started Dumping. :D
EOS for example.
Maybe they are hurrying now to get prepared for another move up. :)
First I said: "Altcoins had a decent little run up today, and look like they need to retrace a bit with BTC for another push up"
Altcoins shortly after start Dumping.
Then I said: "Maybe they are hurrying now to get prepared for another move up. :)"
Bitcoin starts Pumping.
BTC may be able to get to 6490-6570 with this current pump. The higher target you aim for (either exit Long or enter Short), increases chances not reaching target.
I'm definitely not certain of this yet, nor is this necessarily my main count. I just wanted to point something out.
There is a chance that Bitcoin's entire move today was a large wave-4 ABC correction of 5 waves down.
It's too early to be able to verify this, but I wanted to mention so you can look out for any signs of this happening and react in time.
Price may pull back to ~6360 before attempting to move up again.
This may be good news for Bulls as it makes the scenario I pointed out of an immediate wave-5 drop less likely, as wave-4 would now retrace too heavily.
Possibility to fall a bit sharply to ~6290 also.
I'll just label these drop areas of interest, and one can observe the velocity of drop to approximate target.
I've exited Short positions there in nice profit. Also rode the wave up in Long with good profits.
Looks like it could drop lower still, but I prefer to secure my profits and look for good re-entry once this settles a bit.
BTC could attempt another wave up today & may get to the yellow box range.
Do remember that I posted an Caution alternative scenario to keep in mind (image 2, but seeming less likely now).
Need to sleep, will analyze better when I wake.
They got filled at bottom of this drop, but I've just exited all orders in profit.
BTC may head for another subwave down; if it does, 7300 support may hold
I don't feel 100% with count; I'll play it safe & not have any open orders while I sleep.
It's just better risk and money management to not over-trade, and not take trades when you feel some uncertainty.
There's always many other days/times for next trades.
I hope some of you were able to take profits from this call.
I missed this ride up as I had to sleep & didn't want to leave positions open, for safety.
Now I will look for signs of this breaking down and not having another wave up before opening Shorts.
I also want to analyze this structure more.
It's possible that the correction/short uptrend is not complete, if this is only subwave-A of wave-B in a large ABC.
As we had 1 more small leg down below 6360, this may change count.
Will try to update in a bit.
I'm not 100% certain on the current count (if the correction is fully complete).
I've outlined significant support areas, where price could drop to/hold/bounce.
It's possible we get 5 waves down to ~6000.
If trading, best observe & react accordingly.
This however is not my main count, but always be prepared in case count may be wrong.
I will be exiting Shorts on profit & re-entering more Shorts if this plays out as 5 waves down.
$BTC nearly mini-pumped into my Short; I do tend to place them safely away in case of unexpected movements.
Possibility that #BTC could try to force 1 more wave up from here, but it could also fall soon. Waiting for clarity before entry
I won't be entering Long here. Not a wise/safe idea to attempt to ride a 5th subwave up in a larger down-trend.
I'll wait for more confirmation to enter Short whether at current area or ~6800.
I'm updating chart with support regions.
This trajectory is my guess for the moment, there is limited data & I'm not 100% sure that the correction is complete.
Hopefully we uptrend after.
The yellow box (6440-6340) is a decent support area. It's also possible that BTC drops there and moves up further, if we are currently on wave-3 of 5 upward.
If price breaks through the yellow box, we likely downtrend as 5 waves.
The wave formations & proportions are a bit odd, so again I'm not 100% on this.
Keep an eye out for it maybe doing something like this (solid arrows).
Still a chance of it pushing higher, but seems less likely.
Y - Dropped to 6440
o - Fakeout Pump/Bull Trap
Y - Dropped to 6340
Y - Bounced to 6440
(Sorry for slower updates and delayed replies - I've been pretty busy. I'll analyze BTC further when I have some time.)
BTC to: 6600 > 6400
It seems a bit weak bullishly at the moment, and we've seen a lot of failed/truncated Bull Flags recently.
Once I saw BTC price stalling to get further I exited at the top of this current subwave.
Maybe it could still push higher, maybe the Bull Flag isn't complete,
but it seems safer to me to take my profit now than guess
If BTC continues dropping as I'm expecting, maybe a slight bounce around 6440 before dropping a bit more.
Y - Dropped to 6440
Y - Bounced
Now I look for another drop to ~6395.
BTC may uptrend a bit after.
I woke in time earlier to exit Short orders successfully @ drop to 6440 (were entered ~6550).
Woke again a little while ago and entered more Short positions.
All recent trades have been successful and quite profitable.
Average Target: ~6400
Target Range: 6420-6380
Lower support (in case of heavy dump): ~6290
Therese a decent chance of short-term uptrend for the coming hours/day.
Waiting for a bit of stability then may enter Long (not in any position right now).
Bears seem to be pushing/dumping a bit heavily, could get lower.
Sorry also for any missed replies (more so on Twitter), I've been busier than usual lately.
Brb in a bit.
I won't be surprised if it could happen soon.
Upside target in the case it does take this direction is ~6615 range.
Note the upper and Lower Support/Resistance labelled in my chart.
Current pump may be sustained, however I'm not 100% confident on Bullishness to ~6600 right now.
Getting there isn't yet invalid, but recent movements were weak & fractals poorly formed for interpretation.
Also I need to sleep.
Right now it's hovering around the ~6725 upper resistance I had labeled in case it over-shot.
I hope some of you made nice profit on this call. :)
I did exit Longs early (in good profit) as I needed to sleep & didn't see clear Bullish signs in the previous hours.
I don't regret the decision. Regretting can dull your future decisions.
A rule of mine is:
If less certain about target
Already in good profits
= Take Profits
With that strategy, I rarely take losses. Haven't taken a loss in a while.
I prefer gradual good/great daily profits with barely any losses, than hoping/waiting for Home-run trades.
I did call for a Pump though. It delayed a lot... but eventually came. :)
I'll analyze $BTC further once I get a chance.
Looks possible for #BTC to have a 5th subwave up, but I see heavy upside resistance around 7800 area.
I'm not in a position right now.
I think that right now isn't the safest trading area, as things can turn quickly.
I see possibility of BTC managing a push to ~6870.
I may attempt a small Long scalp, but prefer to Short when Top is found.
See my post from a week ago, where I mentioned there is some possibility that we may have already completed the current downtrend, or could bounce to ~6800 then back to ~5900 to complete.
I will be trading very carefully in and out of positions, but will keep aware that things could change suddenly over the coming days.
When I believe I've confirmed either route, I'll update with that info.
I haven't posted any very Bullish counts recently (still mostly all targets correct) but here is the "potential" Bullish count I see.
I see two BTC scenarios as I pointed out a week ago.
If the more bullish scenario is true (we've completed current downtrend), then we would right now be wrapping up subwave-1 of wave-3 upward.
Doesn't look very strong though, so it may not get much higher.
I did enter Long positions earlier, already well in profit, so I'm exiting and placing Short orders soon.
I expect BTC to retrace to 6600-6540 range.
Hopefully I'm awake by that time, then can analyze next likely path.
I've exited Long positions in nice profit. Filled Shorts.
Be cautious, as explained in my previous posts.
We could see a drop to 6650-6600 range, then based on how it reacts there, I'll have a better idea on which count follows through.
The Bearish/Down looks a bit more likely at the moment.
I've exited Shorts near the bottom of that drop in nice profit.
Things don't look great for Bulls right now, likely BTC drops further.
Bullish path not yet invalidated, just less likely.
I'm hoping for a little pullback to fill more Shorts.
If price pulls back below today's low of 6560, this should confirm a Bearish outcome & we fall to at least the 6450-6375 range.
As I said: "If price pulls back below today's low of 6560, this should confirm a Bearish outcome" - Which never happened.
I maintained that the Bullish scenario is still possible unless that Bearish condition was met.
IF BTC manages to reach ~6850 overnight (risky to Buy/Long here, looks a bit weak, could fall before), it looks like a decent short-term Sell opportunity to me. Unlikely that it crosses 6930 overnight.
It may then pull back to ~6720, at which point I'd wait for a proper reaction (No-Trade Zone) to be able to determine its next path.
This is: Trading View > Indicators > Volume Profile > Visible Range
It shows how much price volume activity occurred at the various price points.
about the drop i didnt see that coming well let say i wasnt confident or let say skilled enough enough to be prepared to short it. some day ,.... some day :)