Bitcoin's Bottom: 6100-5900 in 8-16 days

Hello all,
If you've followed me for a while, you may have noticed that my calls/analysis have mostly been very accurate with consistency.
I usually focus on intra-day             targets rather than long-term view.

Since I've recently been asked a lot "What do I think is Bitcoin's bottom", I've decided to have a look into this.

At the moment, I believe that Bitcoin's "next" bottom should be between the 6100-5900 $USD price ranges.
I can't say if this will be the lowest point we will see Bitcoin             at for the rest of the year. I haven't attempted to analyze that far ahead.


My guess on Bitcoin's next moves:
As mentioned in my last post, I was looking out for a "small ABC correction" on BTC             . So far, that appears to be shaping up.
I'm looking for a C-wave             up to ~6605, & will short to 6400-6300, if things are looking ok.


Note that it is risky to enter Long to attempt riding C-wave             up, in the case that this correction already completed, and we are on the next wave down.
Use stop-losses if attempting this.
It's safer to short the top @ ~6605.
Safest to look for price dropping before shorting.


Follow me on Twitter for more timely and consistent updates: @AndrewEDavis
評論: Bitcoin correction to 6605 met. Drop to 6390 met.
FAILED however to sustain bounce after drop target.
BTC Flash Crashed and Pumped 300 points 6400 to 6100 & back.
This could be good news for us however, as it may accelerate the completion of this down-trend.

Prices fell into my Altcoin Long orders & I sold bounce at nice profits.
Rode waves to 6605 & shorted there to drop zone.
Didn't play out 100% as expected with the flash Dump/Pump, but, 100% of trades were very profitable. :)
I hope some of you took nice profits on these calls.

I've had 6100 as a major support & 6350 drop zone target since days ago, have a look:

I didn't expect the flash Dump/Pump, so I didn't zoom out to show 6100.

I'll wait for things to settle a bit before analyzing next targets. Not safest to trade right now.
評論: My thoughts on #BTC's next move:
(Not the best time to predict after that 300 point Flash Dump/Pump, I'll still share some thoughts).

BTC either drops here or pushes a little more to ~6405 first.
Then likely down to ~6000 or double-bottom ~6100.
I think it doesn't get below 5875 for now.

評論: I see some possibility of Bitcoin either ending this current downtrend (or staging a relief rally up), within the next 24 hours, or within a week or so, depending what is the correct wave count.
I'll be going Long on orders after this current drop I'm expecting.

評論: At the moment I'm not maintaining a particular count for Bitcoin.
It's current movement is uncertain; it's best to wait for a decisive move before entering trades.
Once I get more clarity I'll try to update with a count and/or targets.
評論: Possibly Bitcoin decides next direction soon by breaking out of this triangle (whichever direction is does).

評論: Things are beginning to look more Bullish for #Bitcoin and #Altcoins.
However, the case for the bearish scenario (breaking downward) is that Altcoins had a decent little run up today, and look like they need to retrace a bit with $BTC for another push up tomorrow.
評論: I just said "Altcoins had a decent little run up today, and look like they need to retrace a bit with BTC for another push up tomorrow".

Moments after I said this, Altcoins started Dumping. :D
EOS for example.
Maybe they are hurrying now to get prepared for another move up. :)

評論: What a coincidence...

First I said: "Altcoins had a decent little run up today, and look like they need to retrace a bit with BTC for another push up"
Altcoins shortly after start Dumping.

Then I said: "Maybe they are hurrying now to get prepared for another move up. :)"
Bitcoin starts Pumping.

評論: (Sorry I didn't post this as quickly as I wanted, BTC started moving again while typing. Needed to fill orders.)

BTC may be able to get to 6490-6570 with this current pump. The higher target you aim for (either exit Long or enter Short), increases chances not reaching target.

評論: BTC could be making a Bull Flag.
I'm definitely not certain of this yet, nor is this necessarily my main count. I just wanted to point something out.

There is a chance that Bitcoin's entire move today was a large wave-4 ABC correction of 5 waves down.

It's too early to be able to verify this, but I wanted to mention so you can look out for any signs of this happening and react in time.

評論: BTC made the Bull Flag I said I thought was forming 7hrs ago.
Price may pull back to ~6360 before attempting to move up again.
This may be good news for Bulls as it makes the scenario I pointed out of an immediate wave-5 drop less likely, as wave-4 would now retrace too heavily.

評論: I think it's possible that #Bitcoin could correct deeper than stated in my last post depending on the larger wave count.
Possibility to fall a bit sharply to ~6290 also.
I'll just label these drop areas of interest, and one can observe the velocity of drop to approximate target.

評論: BTC fell right to my main drop target mark of 6360 so far.
I've exited Short positions there in nice profit. Also rode the wave up in Long with good profits.
Looks like it could drop lower still, but I prefer to secure my profits and look for good re-entry once this settles a bit.

評論: Leaving some general thoughts on what BTC may do.
BTC could attempt another wave up today & may get to the yellow box range.
Do remember that I posted an Caution alternative scenario to keep in mind (image 2, but seeming less likely now).

Need to sleep, will analyze better when I wake.

評論: I placed orders to attempt this ride up.
They got filled at bottom of this drop, but I've just exited all orders in profit.

BTC may head for another subwave down; if it does, 7300 support may hold
I don't feel 100% with count; I'll play it safe & not have any open orders while I sleep.
評論: Not that I'm fully un-confident with my count.
It's just better risk and money management to not over-trade, and not take trades when you feel some uncertainty.
There's always many other days/times for next trades.
評論: I called this one exactly again? :)
I hope some of you were able to take profits from this call.

I missed this ride up as I had to sleep & didn't want to leave positions open, for safety.

Now I will look for signs of this breaking down and not having another wave up before opening Shorts.

I also want to analyze this structure more.
It's possible that the correction/short uptrend is not complete, if this is only subwave-A of wave-B in a large ABC.
As we had 1 more small leg down below 6360, this may change count.
Will try to update in a bit.

評論: BTC seems preparing to drop again soon.
I'm not 100% certain on the current count (if the correction is fully complete).

I've outlined significant support areas, where price could drop to/hold/bounce.

It's possible we get 5 waves down to ~6000.
If trading, best observe & react accordingly.

評論: Keep in mind also that there is a possibility that BTC could have a 3rd impulse wave up to ~7800.
This however is not my main count, but always be prepared in case count may be wrong.
I will be exiting Shorts on profit & re-entering more Shorts if this plays out as 5 waves down.
評論: I'm waiting before re-setting Short orders.
$BTC nearly mini-pumped into my Short; I do tend to place them safely away in case of unexpected movements.
Possibility that #BTC could try to force 1 more wave up from here, but it could also fall soon. Waiting for clarity before entry
評論: I'm considering that Bitcoin can attempt one more push up to ~6800 for a 5th subwave.
I won't be entering Long here. Not a wise/safe idea to attempt to ride a 5th subwave up in a larger down-trend.
I'll wait for more confirmation to enter Short whether at current area or ~6800.

評論: #Bitcoin may start moving downward soon.
I'm updating chart with support regions.
評論: I believe that BTC may start moving soon. Whether it manages one last push to 6800 (seems less likely) or begins dropping from here.
This trajectory is my guess for the moment, there is limited data & I'm not 100% sure that the correction is complete.
Hopefully we uptrend after.

The yellow box (6440-6340) is a decent support area. It's also possible that BTC drops there and moves up further, if we are currently on wave-3 of 5 upward.
If price breaks through the yellow box, we likely downtrend as 5 waves.

評論: Very long and drawn out formation $BTC made at the top there... but I believe it's about to finally wrap up soon, and likely start dropping within 10-30 minutes (or less).
評論: Bitcoin dropped as expected, I think it's about to move soon again.
The wave formations & proportions are a bit odd, so again I'm not 100% on this.
Keep an eye out for it maybe doing something like this (solid arrows).
Still a chance of it pushing higher, but seems less likely.

評論: Bitcoin's movements of today looks similar to my chart from 13 hrs ago? :)

Y - Dropped to 6440
o - Fakeout Pump/Bull Trap
Y - Dropped to 6340
Y - Bounced to 6440

(Sorry for slower updates and delayed replies - I've been pretty busy. I'll analyze BTC further when I have some time.)

評論: I think that Bitcoin may possibly move like this over the 8-16 hours:
BTC to: 6600 > 6400

評論: Note: No assurance that $BTC gets much higher, to 6600.
It seems a bit weak bullishly at the moment, and we've seen a lot of failed/truncated Bull Flags recently.
評論: I've exited my Long positions already in decent profit.
Once I saw BTC price stalling to get further I exited at the top of this current subwave.
Maybe it could still push higher, maybe the Bull Flag isn't complete,
but it seems safer to me to take my profit now than guess
評論: BTC touched the bottom of my of my target area and appears to be dropping. I did alert well in advance (mins after posting chart) that 6600 avg target seemed more unlikely.

If BTC continues dropping as I'm expecting, maybe a slight bounce around 6440 before dropping a bit more.

評論: Note that I do still see a slight possibility of this being a near complete Bull Flag (which could cause a last wave-5 to ~6600) however it looks less likely with time.
評論: I looks like BTC is still in line with my last targets, only that we apparently had a disproportional 5th subwave which dragged out quite long (I did make clear I was unsure if 5th subwave completed).

Y - Dropped to 6440
Y - Bounced

Now I look for another drop to ~6395.
BTC may uptrend a bit after.


I woke in time earlier to exit Short orders successfully @ drop to 6440 (were entered ~6550).
Woke again a little while ago and entered more Short positions.
All recent trades have been successful and quite profitable.

評論: This current Bitcoin drop (for the day) may be near complete.
Average Target: ~6400
Target Range: 6420-6380
Lower support (in case of heavy dump): ~6290
Therese a decent chance of short-term uptrend for the coming hours/day.

評論: I exited Shorts again successfully in profit.
Waiting for a bit of stability then may enter Long (not in any position right now).
Bears seem to be pushing/dumping a bit heavily, could get lower.

Sorry also for any missed replies (more so on Twitter), I've been busier than usual lately.
Brb in a bit.
評論: I see a possibility for a short-term uptrend or another quick pump on BTC.
I won't be surprised if it could happen soon.
Upside target in the case it does take this direction is ~6615 range.
Note the upper and Lower Support/Resistance labelled in my chart.

評論: I exited BTC Long positions in nice profit (at the top of that spike minutes ago).

Current pump may be sustained, however I'm not 100% confident on Bullishness to ~6600 right now.

Getting there isn't yet invalid, but recent movements were weak & fractals poorly formed for interpretation.

Also I need to sleep.
評論: Bitcoin managed to accomplish my next target and even break through it. Nice!

Right now it's hovering around the ~6725 upper resistance I had labeled in case it over-shot.

I hope some of you made nice profit on this call. :)

I did exit Longs early (in good profit) as I needed to sleep & didn't see clear Bullish signs in the previous hours.

I don't regret the decision. Regretting can dull your future decisions.
A rule of mine is:
If less certain about target
Already in good profits
= Take Profits

With that strategy, I rarely take losses. Haven't taken a loss in a while.

I prefer gradual good/great daily profits with barely any losses, than hoping/waiting for Home-run trades.

I did call for a Pump though. It delayed a lot... but eventually came. :)

I'll analyze $BTC further once I get a chance.

Looks possible for #BTC to have a 5th subwave up, but I see heavy upside resistance around 7800 area.

I'm not in a position right now.

評論: I have labelled the Support & Resistances I see for Bitcoin at the moment.
I think that right now isn't the safest trading area, as things can turn quickly.
I see possibility of BTC managing a push to ~6870.
I may attempt a small Long scalp, but prefer to Short when Top is found.

評論: I recommend CAUTION in going heavily Long/Short (Crypto/Fiat) over the next day or two.

See my post from a week ago, where I mentioned there is some possibility that we may have already completed the current downtrend, or could bounce to ~6800 then back to ~5900 to complete.

I will be trading very carefully in and out of positions, but will keep aware that things could change suddenly over the coming days.

When I believe I've confirmed either route, I'll update with that info.


評論: Per my previous post, I'm currently not set on Bullish/Bearish count, I would need 1-3 days to confirm. I believe we are at/near a changing point.
I haven't posted any very Bullish counts recently (still mostly all targets correct) but here is the "potential" Bullish count I see.

I see two BTC scenarios as I pointed out a week ago.
If the more bullish scenario is true (we've completed current downtrend), then we would right now be wrapping up subwave-1 of wave-3 upward.

評論: Bitcoin should be near done completing this 5th subwave I've been mentioning.
Doesn't look very strong though, so it may not get much higher.
I did enter Long positions earlier, already well in profit, so I'm exiting and placing Short orders soon.

評論: This subwave completed (assuming it is) right on target.
I expect BTC to retrace to 6600-6540 range.
Hopefully I'm awake by that time, then can analyze next likely path.
I've exited Long positions in nice profit. Filled Shorts.
Be cautious, as explained in my previous posts.

評論: BTC Update - A bit more data now, but not yet enough to clarify which of my 2 scenarios plays out.
We could see a drop to 6650-6600 range, then based on how it reacts there, I'll have a better idea on which count follows through.
The Bearish/Down looks a bit more likely at the moment.

評論: price fell to my target zone, pierced just slightly below.
I've exited Shorts near the bottom of that drop in nice profit.
Things don't look great for Bulls right now, likely BTC drops further.
Bullish path not yet invalidated, just less likely.
I'm hoping for a little pullback to fill more Shorts.

評論: While I believe that the BTC Bearish scenario (further drop) is more likely, the Bullish possibility of another push to ~6910 is not off the table yet.

If price pulls back below today's low of 6560, this should confirm a Bearish outcome & we fall to at least the 6450-6375 range.

評論: I hope you all stayed safe with today's BTC movements.
As I said: "If price pulls back below today's low of 6560, this should confirm a Bearish outcome" - Which never happened.
I maintained that the Bullish scenario is still possible unless that Bearish condition was met.


IF BTC manages to reach ~6850 overnight (risky to Buy/Long here, looks a bit weak, could fall before), it looks like a decent short-term Sell opportunity to me. Unlikely that it crosses 6930 overnight.

It may then pull back to ~6720, at which point I'd wait for a proper reaction (No-Trade Zone) to be able to determine its next path.

Lets Dump sir
i got a question for you if you have the time and an idea about it. for as long as im trading i caatch myself again and again loving the noise of 1 minute charts i would look at 10 second charts if available. im aware of the benefit of longer time frames and im wondering if this habbit of wanting to look at deeper level of time frames distract me maybe too much from the main goal which should after all be making money. do you look at 1 minute charts at all ? would you even go as far as to forbit yourself to open 1 minute charts ?
Hi, thank you for your work, very instructive! Can you please explain what are the bars at the right of the chart? Is that distribution of orders? How can i display that also? Thank you :)
+1 回覆
@pc_wave, Hello.
This is: Trading View > Indicators > Volume Profile > Visible Range

It shows how much price volume activity occurred at the various price points.
pc_wave AndrewDavis5
@AndrewDavis5, Thank you, i notice it's unfortunately PRO only... maybe later!
You rock! Thanks, finally someone who gets it right and isn't out for manipulation and personal gains like so many out there
+1 回覆
@Jules1, thanks very much for your kind comment!
@BPN, great.
Dayta AndrewDavis5
@AndrewDavis5, i just had to laugh seeing that comment here .. first its like ok thanks for all the reasons he gave you why he unfollowed basicly leaving all open for speculation first thing coming up was like "because im angry i cant stand you beeing right" at least he went through the trouble of taking the time to open this thread scroll down to write a comment. kinda reminds me of the song people are strange by the doors

about the drop i didnt see that coming well let say i wasnt confident or let say skilled enough enough to be prepared to short it. some day ,.... some day :)
+1 回覆
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