so much has been said and re-said and told and discussed around BTC and next moves, i am just going to put in my 2 cents as well.
Even though lots of people talk of BTC having a behaviour difficult to predict, looking at the charts, i see it following a normal pattern that in this case even seems to repeating with slight nuances. The big drop to 6K was expected but this sudden change of trend confused some people but, again, looking at the charts we seem to be following a normal 535 elliot wave.
We are on wave 4, a correction wave on a downtrend, which means is an uptrend wave. If you see closely, waves 1,2 and 3 seem so simetrical that we can estimate that behaviour for waves 4 and 5 won't differ that much.
Waves 1 and 3 were in turn composed each of 5 smaller waves and wave 2 was a classical ABC wave, which seems to be repeating right now in wave 4. And, if so, we can expect a retracement to the 7,7K area, which we can use wave 2 as a reference, since the retracement was 0.618 on the ABC correction. C in this case should then reach between 9K and 9,2K and then we go for our final wave 5.
Wave 5 should be smaller than 3 and 1 due to normal elliot wave rules, but i expect an extension between 0.786 and 1 which would place between 6,7K and 6,4K. And then we can all finally breathe and go on about our lifes as usual :)
Of course this is just an opinion, not an advice. Always do your own research.
BTC has been pretty stable since yesterday, it hasnt kept going up but it hasnt come down yet. Do you still think it will probably test the 7,700 lows later this week, or would you say its more or less stabilized? It is very hard to say, but Im interested in your thoughts
Of course it's just my own opinion based on the reading i do, but i have several reasons to believe that it will retrace to 7,7/7,4 area before moving up again.
One is that 8600 has been a very big resistance, 3 times it tried to break and didn't. Again we are there but never break it.
This along with higher time frames revealing some weakness in RSI, it already is showing in 30M and i think it will be a matter of time until we see it spreading to lower time frames. I can imagine us having some more side action and then going down. Anyway 8600 is definitely the key. If we test it again and don't break it, definitely going down.
Thank you again, and always do your own research, i appreciate every opinion and discussion here :)
kash27
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@Pedro.guarita, Broke the resistance. Although RSI still indicates overbought, but it has been readjusting itself since the uptrend began on sunday. Id like to see it go down so I can buy more cheap alts and Id say a retracement is very probable, but it seems like BTC is finding new levels of support
xuanhaimmoer
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pedro.guarita
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@xuanhaimmoer, thank you for the chart, a different take but which is always nice and the good thing about trading, so many differents ways to look at the same thing and have different interpretations. I have to admit i don't really master the "butterfly", it does look nice and i wouldn't mind that scenario too. Hopefully one of us is right and we can play by that move, we are both waiting on the same thing, that dreaded 8600 resistance :)
Thanks for the analysis!