Bitcoin: War between Bulls and Bears
Hello Traders,
Looking at the 4 hour chart for Bitcoin, Bitcoin has traded in a sideways manner in last 60 hours. After Bitcoin reached monthly high ($8488), the price consolidation has neutralized the bullish outlook. There is a clear resistance around $8300, and support around $8069.
After spending the weekend in the narrow range between $8100 and $8300, we saw a very interesting slide to $7870 this afternoon. This is partially because Bitcoin lost its support at $8069 and caused a lot of stop losses to fill in. However, every time bears are trying to drive the price down, bulls are rejecting bears by showing a strong recovery which is a clear indication that bulls are still in control.
What I am particularly fascinated in past 60 hours is that this candle pattern looks very similar to what we have from May 21 to June 10th (yellow box). You see after the bear flag breakout on May 16th, Bitcoin traded between $7300 and $7800 for more than 15 days, followed by another bear flag breakout. Additionally, every time we see bull flag formation within the yellow box, we saw bear breakout instead of bull breakout (and vise versa!!). People may call this a price manipulation, but to me it seems like bears and bulls are testing their limit when Bitcoin goes back and forth like that.
And this is exactly what we are seeing at the moment, except now it is in bull's favour. If SEC decision on ETF will be released on August 10th, we may see price consolidation for another 10 days, which we saw in yellow box. In bullish view, a break above $8340 would allow a retest on $8488. A daily close above $8488 would confirm a long bull trend. My bullish view will be invalidatd if the price breaks and sustains below $7785.
(Bollinger's band is starting to narrow so we may some price action in next 24 hours, rejecting my yellow box theory)
Happy trading!!
Looking at the 4 hour chart for Bitcoin, Bitcoin has traded in a sideways manner in last 60 hours. After Bitcoin reached monthly high ($8488), the price consolidation has neutralized the bullish outlook. There is a clear resistance around $8300, and support around $8069.
After spending the weekend in the narrow range between $8100 and $8300, we saw a very interesting slide to $7870 this afternoon. This is partially because Bitcoin lost its support at $8069 and caused a lot of stop losses to fill in. However, every time bears are trying to drive the price down, bulls are rejecting bears by showing a strong recovery which is a clear indication that bulls are still in control.
What I am particularly fascinated in past 60 hours is that this candle pattern looks very similar to what we have from May 21 to June 10th (yellow box). You see after the bear flag breakout on May 16th, Bitcoin traded between $7300 and $7800 for more than 15 days, followed by another bear flag breakout. Additionally, every time we see bull flag formation within the yellow box, we saw bear breakout instead of bull breakout (and vise versa!!). People may call this a price manipulation, but to me it seems like bears and bulls are testing their limit when Bitcoin goes back and forth like that.
And this is exactly what we are seeing at the moment, except now it is in bull's favour. If SEC decision on ETF will be released on August 10th, we may see price consolidation for another 10 days, which we saw in yellow box. In bullish view, a break above $8340 would allow a retest on $8488. A daily close above $8488 would confirm a long bull trend. My bullish view will be invalidatd if the price breaks and sustains below $7785.
(Bollinger's band is starting to narrow so we may some price action in next 24 hours, rejecting my yellow box theory)
Happy trading!!
註釋
As expected, we see some price action this morning. Bitcoin briefly touched 7734, and showing some signs of recovery. Looking at the daily chart, we see that there is head and shoulders pattern in RSI and it broke out from the neckline. Additionally, MACD is about to cross in bear's favour. There is a strong support around 7600-7800 and if Bitcoin fail to sustain this level, I expect large sell off.
Looking at the 4 hour chart, RSI is at oversold region when Bitcoin is at critical support zone, and my bullish view is still not invalidated yet. To me this will be the another entry point as I believe Bitcoin is preparing another Bull rally and Bitcoin needed RSI to cool off.
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