While everyone is bullish and mooning and coming up with moon ideas I'm going with the opposite scenario.
I know this is might be insane but there is huge chance it will happen.
Today I'm going to share my point of view from 2 sides.
I'm the biggest bull on the long run of Bitcoin but I don't see that bottom is in yet.
There are a lot of positive stuff in the market but I also believe there are hidden negative stuff will appear gradually when the time come.
Let's take a look on the Bitcoin negative data that we have from cryptoquant.com
1. Miner issue:
Take a look at Miners Position Index (MPI): higher value shows that miners are sending more coins than usual which indicates possible selling. If miners send some proportion of their reserve at the same time, it could trigger a price drop. This indicator has hiked when bitcoin price reached 21k.
Looking also at Miner reserve data it shows that miners are selling their coins during this pump.
Why they are selling? Because the mean difficulty of mining a new block of Bitcoin has reached all time high!
2. Exchange reserve (Total number of Bitcoin held in exchange):
During the bear market I found that every bounce or pump happen the value is decreasing and dropping. it means people are selling and less interested in Bitcoin especially in FTX crash. The value has dropped significatly it means the market has become lighter and can drop easily.
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Last time I showed you my Elliott waves formation on weekly time frame.
Now we are still in the volatility zone before going to a new lower low.
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Now let's move to the Bitcoin chart on the daily time frame:
I suppose Wave 3 has been finished because:
- RSI: reached very high value indicate possible trend reversal. - MACD: started to show divergence if you flip also to 12 hours time frame you will find the great divergence means correction is coming. - Fractal: there is a fractal has been formed on 23k level (wave 3). Indicates that the wave has finished or almost finished. - Volume: Decreasing when price is reaching higher high. Indicates future price drop.
This high energy usually doesnt end that fast but it will finally end and reverse.
So what should we expect now?
Correction:
Wave 4: Usually price find support between 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci levels of the previous wave 20,000 - 21,000 level. It will be good opportunity to enter long for short term.
Since we are analyzing daily time frame the waves will take time to develop.
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Wave 5: we need to find divergence on momentum indicators once we reach the 25,000 zone.(Daily time frame or 12 hours)
Target for wave 5: 25,000 (I measured the price range of wave 1 and placed it on my prediction of wave 4 bottom)
The news will be universally positive (The best time to sell) and there where average trader finally buy in.
And here is the trick. Market maker might break the 25k level reaching 26k to carry more people on the board and liquidate more shorts before the big drop.
After that the slingshot to the downside will come without any reason.
Remember: they always do the drop then they create a reason.
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Non of this you can use as financial advice! always do your trade based on your analysis and strategy.