BTC Analysis - Rate Decision Week
Extremely promising start to the trading week, big move up in the RSI and price testing the upper edge of our range having bounced from the support at 34.1k. Consolidation and narrowing of price range like we have seen over the past week usually precedes a breakout.
Concensus at the backend of last week was that we would breakdown drawn mainly from some bearish onchain analytics showing selling behaviour on the rise and indicating the end of the 'ETF rumour cycle' (see analysis from last week).
This breakdown however is yet to materialise through the weekend (a time, with low volumes, where a definite trend should be able to take hold).
In cases like this where BTC made a definitive move into the consolidation we would consider it a pennant where price shows consolidation before continuing with its upwards move.
So our technicals and onchain are misaligned - technically we are setting up for another bullish breakout but the onchain is telling us that profits are being booked. I think both are likely true a small breakdown or pullback going into a continuation of an uptrend, although the way we've started the week it may be a very short lived and small pullback.
On Friday evening around 7pm (UK time) we saw a low of 33.4k and this could prove to be the pullback low if we do see the breakout.
To confirm the breakout I think we need to close a daily candle above the 35k, breaking the trendline of our pennant and the block of sell orders above between 34.7k and 34.85k likely won't be enough, as witnessed by the wicks on the 24th and 25th of October at 35.1k and 35.2k.
If we do breakout or if we do fail check out our Key levels analysis from last week for our thoughts on potential targets.
Outside of the technicals we have an eventful week in terms of economic data - however hopefully nothing that should be too impactful on BTC price.
November 1 - Fed Interest Rate decision
November 3 - Nonfarm Payrolls
Last time I checked CME FedWatch had a 98% chance of a rate pause - this level of certainty means that the pause is ikely already priced in so unlikely to have any impact on price outside of the usual social media driven pre-announcement volatility. The pause should though mean that through to the halving we have a poor but not worsening economic picture which compared to most of the last two years is a dream.
The Nonfarm Payrolls, however, might be dangerous to price. Last month it threw a real shock so we'll keep a closer eye on that metric this week than usual - given last months shock its also likely that volatility will be high around release time.
Also on the first we have PMI data and Jolts data although these are unlikely to have much impact coming a few hours before the interest rate decision - if they are bad they'll impavt the december rates so we can worry about it then!
Concensus at the backend of last week was that we would breakdown drawn mainly from some bearish onchain analytics showing selling behaviour on the rise and indicating the end of the 'ETF rumour cycle' (see analysis from last week).
This breakdown however is yet to materialise through the weekend (a time, with low volumes, where a definite trend should be able to take hold).
In cases like this where BTC made a definitive move into the consolidation we would consider it a pennant where price shows consolidation before continuing with its upwards move.
So our technicals and onchain are misaligned - technically we are setting up for another bullish breakout but the onchain is telling us that profits are being booked. I think both are likely true a small breakdown or pullback going into a continuation of an uptrend, although the way we've started the week it may be a very short lived and small pullback.
On Friday evening around 7pm (UK time) we saw a low of 33.4k and this could prove to be the pullback low if we do see the breakout.
To confirm the breakout I think we need to close a daily candle above the 35k, breaking the trendline of our pennant and the block of sell orders above between 34.7k and 34.85k likely won't be enough, as witnessed by the wicks on the 24th and 25th of October at 35.1k and 35.2k.
If we do breakout or if we do fail check out our Key levels analysis from last week for our thoughts on potential targets.
Outside of the technicals we have an eventful week in terms of economic data - however hopefully nothing that should be too impactful on BTC price.
November 1 - Fed Interest Rate decision
November 3 - Nonfarm Payrolls
Last time I checked CME FedWatch had a 98% chance of a rate pause - this level of certainty means that the pause is ikely already priced in so unlikely to have any impact on price outside of the usual social media driven pre-announcement volatility. The pause should though mean that through to the halving we have a poor but not worsening economic picture which compared to most of the last two years is a dream.
The Nonfarm Payrolls, however, might be dangerous to price. Last month it threw a real shock so we'll keep a closer eye on that metric this week than usual - given last months shock its also likely that volatility will be high around release time.
Also on the first we have PMI data and Jolts data although these are unlikely to have much impact coming a few hours before the interest rate decision - if they are bad they'll impavt the december rates so we can worry about it then!
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