Price is retesting a long-term daily trendline, if price begins to falter here and we see a COT (change of trend) on the 4hrly chart I will add to my position. I have bought BTC to early so I will be waiting on more confirmation to enter the market this time. If price breaks the trendline we will see 8370ish or the 23.6 retracement level before heading up. I have drawn some projections to check where price may stall and head up from this area. The last swing was 289% - from the doji made last week and to the fib level of 241% and a 161.8 of this move we have confluence. I will be looking at this area to scale. My price projections will change if/when we break the daily trendline.
Of course, in hindsight, it is easy to say why such mistakes happen. But then again, I didn't make mistake of jumping on hype train. And here's why. First, sure, maybe magic numbers work in The Middle Earth, in the real world markets don't care. 12.5k may have been minor resistance, but major was 13k. Coz yeah, people like round numbers. Human psychology (not sure if dollars apply to Asia for example). Then if you looked at ultimate oscillator on shorter timeline, you could have seen that breakout above 13K wasn't going to happen at all. Buyers didn't step in.
gillianpatrice
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@afterforever, Gosh - I could learn alot from you. Thanks for your insight.
afterforever
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@gillianpatrice, I sense sarcasm. At least, you didn't point out that if my account is about one month long, so I need to shut up, coz yeah, tradingview apparently is the only platform :P
@afterforever, Please do not shut up! I really love the input- I learn things from people everyday and your comment was truly insightful.
afterforever
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@gillianpatrice, My bad. If I can't figure out what people are trying to say, I can't be trusted to read the chart.
You have larger trends on your chart but I think you are missing smaller details to make picture more clear to see what's going on. Smaller uptrend last night was broken, So downtrend is at play. Things can go either way right now. So, personally, I am all cash (I can't short :( ), until there are clear signs of reversal. I don't want to be taken a slaughter together with other bulls:
serial77
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@gillianpatrice You're not the only one who got in too early ;) I agree with the rest of your analysis, although your approach is different than mine we seem to draw pretty much the same conclusion. Thanks for posting this!
gillianpatrice
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@serial77, Thank you for taking the time to post a note.