Based on current Fib levels with the high at $20.000 and lows at $330, obvious confluence is at $7800 (38% retracement level). Typically the 38% level is level where huge buyers will buy the 61% discount, buying up the bitcoins from panic sellers. Because big players will be involved at these levels, price will bounce very hard and fast. It will allow bitcoin to rise beyond the current $20.000 level. Next target after that is the 161% level around $31.000. After that there's the 261% level around $50.000.
Also currently as I write this, a head-and-shoulder pattern is unfolding, where the right shoulder is given form. Once the pattern is complete, a drop in price can be expected measured by the neckline to the top, which indicates the same $7800 area.
Another reason why I believe bitcoin will drop further is, by simply looking at weekly chart of bitcoin, clearly you can see the bearish engulfing pattern, which given on the weekly has serious impact.
I expect that the 1st target of $7800 will unfold in the next couple of weeks (end of januari). The second target could take a month or 2 to complete (e.g. feb / march) the third target could take longer to complete (3-6 months or so, depends on the number of retraces required).
for the first target, if you have bitcoin, a good idea is to hedge against a potential drop to $7800. Buy more bitcoins between $7800 - $8000 levels.
It turns out I was too optimistic with this analysis and also way too soon. BTC went down below the 8000 mark, now possibily heading for the $5000 level (this would correspond to the 23.6% retracement measured from the top). If the $5000 level breaks, it will drop to $3000. I doubt it will go much lower than that but anything is possible in crypto.
I think the analysis setup is still correct though: we have move up, retracement to the 23.6% level (instead of the 38.2% level) and then the continuation up, breaking the ATH. This will take longer than indicated on this chart though. I think the market will stay bearish for a few more months. Hopefully the market will turn bullish again around Q3, maybe reaching ATH in Q4, but it's diffult to predict obviously.
I think the analysis setup is still correct though: we have move up, retracement to the 23.6% level (instead of the 38.2% level) and then the continuation up, breaking the ATH. This will take longer than indicated on this chart though. I think the market will stay bearish for a few more months. Hopefully the market will turn bullish again around Q3, maybe reaching ATH in Q4, but it's diffult to predict obviously.
Long term I'm still bullish on BTC.
-- this is a mental note--