Crude oil appears to present the best pattern for swing trades on this 4 hour chart. Like EUR/USD and DXY , they are at the end of 5 wave impulse pattern. Next step is to complete a three wave correction which should take us between wave 3 and wave 4.
That being said I'd really like to see price push back up to the strategic entry labeled on the chart. Price has rejected the level once already. I had not developed the trade theory at that point or that would have been a perfect entry. That move only stands to influence our confidence in this setup. It is proof of overhead resistance and new found downward momentum.
I feel comfortable taking the aggressive entry to be in this market. I'd risk 2% (1 contract) at the aggressive entry and 1% (1 contract) at the strategic price. 3% total position. This way I've got low risk if price shoots up and fills the strategic entry and runs to the stop, but I've also got enough skin in the game to be content if this pattern plays out. (Obviously contracts are not able to determine percentage risk, so I did single contracts instead. I will be trading with )
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Disclaimer: Nymex data shown. This is NOT investment advice.
Market printed 64.83 as highest high before today. Today we moved 64.88. This was probably due to contango, but it was iffy on whether or not to consider this a loss. I'm still in the market with a stop at 64.90, due to a mandatory 7 tick buffer on all orders, market missed me by 2 ticks today...
Not looking so good but who knows, were still in.