First idea published after many years of enjoying others work. The structure although shorter in length has the same negative bias prior to the decline seen in August time last year. Main difference is the time taken to create the structure is much shorter and therefore should not lead to as large a decline as we saw last August initially.
My stop is at the all time highs we saw recently. Target is gap fill circa 16,500
same pattern applies to SPX500.
Any thoughts always welcome even if you disagree.
Thanks for looking
評論
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Still short looking for the big decline to come. Expect the move to be sudden and very fast it may be over in less than 10 days.
Notice the gaps this year (faster market, more dollars in the market, where did those dollars come from?). There is also a lot more put action this year than last year, which appears to be propping up the market. Lastly, election year. I wouldn't put it past GS, JPM or C to prop up the market for their favorite candidate this year (carried interest is very important to the hedge funds). The banks have the power to do this, but only for a few months. Banks may have overdone it, maybe back-fired too early. Just speculation. But, the normal "seasonal" downturn is usually in Jan/Feb, the past few years.
omtrader
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Thanks for your comments i appreciate them, yes from a fundamental point of view you are correct but pattern is starting to play out a few more days of heavy selling may start this move down, we will see.