The dollar has been extremely bearish obviously. Gold has been shooting up. But I want point out where the dollar is at exactly. That blue box is equal measurement to wave 1 if you count this out as 5 wave from the top. Wave 3 would be extended and waves 1 and 5 would tend toward equality, just a little guideline. Not in stone. You see my fork line it is about at now, and also the .618 level below where I could see the dollar extend to ultimately. Will it pull up and form a diagonal pattern continuing down? Will it correct up further? Will it simply make a flag and continue? What is going on with Gold and the US dollar is actually somewhat concerning to me, being an American. However XAU/USD closed the week at a high it made in november 2016 in what could possibly at least be the beginning of a corrective diagonal. My point is this... A lot of USD pairs all .618 levels. Watch that 90.50 level on the index. I personally want to see some actual confirmation by some price action and smaller patterns on these pairs. Where my time fibs line up with my fork lines at that 618 level do make me think USD will have to do a big 3 wave correction before it were to reach that area next year....But is the dollar in the process of being annihilated with all this gold standard business? There are some theories out there that are mathematically hard to see, but all I can do is trade patterns and price action. Right now, obviously in a downtrend, but I know they love to pull price back up when they make the kind of sell setup that happened on the daily. Any USD pairs I've posted NEED confirmation....
評論:
In summary, technically speaking looking at the index and all the pairs, it does not make sense to me for the dollar to just continue down. In fact, the scenario of a lower shoulder creating a diagonal seems unlikely at this point, I see an expanded flat probably more likely and I think we will be buying the dollar this week, and when I talk about confirmation, I mean patterns and price action, and I am saying you need to know these things to properly enter trades.