In the long term, DXY has a cycle that moves based on the period of presidential leadership. My observations state that every period of presidential leadership in USA has a great influence on the turn of the dollar trend. therefore it is important for traders to continue to observe the fundamental indicators during a period of presidential leadership. Some important fundamental indicators are the direction of fiscal policy, monetary policy, political stability and economic growth. It is important that you explore the indicator and always monitor the news related to it. Technical analysis in this context is not the main reference, just as a supporter only. Usually I make an analysis like this to be used as a medium-term trading reference or swing trading.
評論
⋅
the government was forced to shutdown: however, if a temporary budget was agreed by the senate it would make more and more money circulating and weaken the USD.
Good analysis my friend. Looking at your chart I see a trend of price starting out the term going the opposite direction, if only for a brief period. And I remember the day Trump said the dollar was too high and it immediately plummeted. One must think if Trump wanted it to go down, his intention wast keep it from crashing down hard with the ultimate goal of raising back up at the opportune time. My question is, how good is the White House's plan?
LioPermana
⋅
@thillygoosth, I think the dollar decline is more due to the risk of a trump policy and geopolitical stability that triggers selling sentiment towards the dollar. From the direction of fiscal and monetary policy if the USA implements tax reforms may increase supply for the dollar, if trump continues to want low interest rates I think it will make the dollar more risky to go down again. to keep balance of demand and supply of dollars then the Fed should increase interest rates gradually.