Looking at the fundamentals this week, we have the CPI data as well as the Core CPI data being released on Wednesday with positive forecasts as well as the FOMC Meeting Minutes later that evening. We then have news affecting a variety of currency pairs as we prepare for the OPEC Meetings, otherwise known as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This group is responsible for 40% of the worlds oil supply which is a substantial % holding, so we can expect major volatility, CAD of course is the most effected pair correlating with Crude Oil. As well as this overall news occurring in the world, we have the PPI data release on Thursday with another positive forecasting.
Jumping to technicals and we are still in this ascending channel that I have shown in a prior article, however, looking at a more refined channel ( this isn't hi-lighted on the chart ), but if you draw out another ascending trend line from the higher wick of the 9th of October in line with the higher wick of the 2nd of January, 15th of February and extended into the future, we can see smaller refined ranging price channel.
Looking at this channel, as well as the monthly key level, we can see we are running out of steam and I believe we can see a pullback before going long on this DXY. The 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci level is hi-lighted in purple on the chart as well as the 71% Fibonacci level is laying on the weekly key level. We had a lower low prior and if price forms a lower high at this current price, we should be set to go short, HOWEVER, we have many significant higher low swing points and thus, I don't see structure as broken just yet.
We also have a new potential Head & Shoulder pattern which will confirm price retracing and falling to the downside to test the weekly key level of 96.25 before going long. With this in mind, Gold should push up, allowing our targets of 1304 being met and a potential reversal/short I anticipate. My bias for the year has been bearish for Gold and I still predict a large downside move to 1260 price region. So this can set us up for a high R/R setup. Drawing a counter trend line from the head to shoulder, we have a 3 anchored wicks showing some favourable downside potential.
I have a current neutral standpoint on this Dollar Index, but I expect price to fall before a continuation to the upside. As always, take risk/money management into consideration and follow these news events as volatility is expected and we can definitely capitalise on the volume around these news events.
Jumping to technicals and we are still in this ascending channel that I have shown in a prior article, however, looking at a more refined channel ( this isn't hi-lighted on the chart ), but if you draw out another ascending trend line from the higher wick of the 9th of October in line with the higher wick of the 2nd of January, 15th of February and extended into the future, we can see smaller refined ranging price channel.
Looking at this channel, as well as the monthly key level, we can see we are running out of steam and I believe we can see a pullback before going long on this DXY. The 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci level is hi-lighted in purple on the chart as well as the 71% Fibonacci level is laying on the weekly key level. We had a lower low prior and if price forms a lower high at this current price, we should be set to go short, HOWEVER, we have many significant higher low swing points and thus, I don't see structure as broken just yet.
We also have a new potential Head & Shoulder pattern which will confirm price retracing and falling to the downside to test the weekly key level of 96.25 before going long. With this in mind, Gold should push up, allowing our targets of 1304 being met and a potential reversal/short I anticipate. My bias for the year has been bearish for Gold and I still predict a large downside move to 1260 price region. So this can set us up for a high R/R setup. Drawing a counter trend line from the head to shoulder, we have a 3 anchored wicks showing some favourable downside potential.
I have a current neutral standpoint on this Dollar Index, but I expect price to fall before a continuation to the upside. As always, take risk/money management into consideration and follow these news events as volatility is expected and we can definitely capitalise on the volume around these news events.