Daily: no change in indicators since my last post, except that volatility increased further on the top and Kijun Sen is higher now. USDJPY is leading this move now. Anyhow, it looks like we are finally enterring wave 4, the long expected corrective pull back.
4 hrs: this is very important now! We have a similar sell signal to the one I wrote about in my USDCHF post. After the Kumo retest Price is breacking below the cloud again, and is about to cross Tenkan, Kijun and the horizontal key support at same time. DMI turning back to to bearish, Slow Stoch is on sell. Short entry for my second Trade unit is triggered.
P.s.: DanV published a very interesting piece about EURUSD earlier. I found that analyses really cool, worth to read! As I commented there I have some reflexive thoughts on USD playfield. All fundamental factors are known about ECB and FED policy changes. What's more, ECB kind of still hesitant to clarify the amounts of possible QE, and I think mentionning the USD strength in FED statement is a game changer to rate hike expectations, where the timing is being priced out from the earlier possible date. Meanwhile HFs and mkt players have increased their long USD holdings even last week! The crowd is getting too big, while the upside of the long USD trade from here is limited. Mkts tend to move to the direction where they can cause a bigger pain. We are getting close to year end too, and frankly speaking this year the short 10y US Treasury trade burnt a lot of people, long equities seem to be disaster too, will the next unwind be the long USD?
評論
Kumowizard
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Turned down again after Kumo retest. Now we have a bearis channel on 4 Hrs, so still sell on pull backs preferred, until we reach the daily bullish trendline ard 83,80-84,00, where TP is recommended on shorts. Meanwhile you can trail your stop lower.
Kumowizard
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Some problem with counter trend short: higher low today, and price back to/ above 100 WMA again, close to Kumo bottom (still below Kumo). If it breaks back above 86,10, that invalidates the short for now. It should really drop quckly back below 85,45 and print a new low to increase bearish bias again. Otherwise it can stay volatile and choppy with a lot of false signals.