If we completed the B wave up, a C wave down should commence starting today. C waves are notorious for their characteristic buying or selling pressure, panic or fomo at it's peak. A good example was the covid sell off in Feb - March 2020.
This is only one possibility. I'll post more as time goes by and see see how price looks.
Either way I believe we will have a sell off for Friday the 13th and into earnings. If they do rally and get over the 200ma today or next week it would be more bullish. As of now they stopped at the 200ma/upper BB and it should not be revisited anytime soon if the bearish case plays out.
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from Jan 5th - i does seem like an A and B wave has completed.
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on spy if they can get over the blue line we are probably going to make one more high to complete the B
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on the 30minute charts the rsi is already quite low, it would not surprise me to have one more move up like so -
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futures trying to take out the trendline to go higher. no idea if they will do it.
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ps its an objective short, but please use stops in case they go higher
That is a deep "c." Seems unfathomable that we actually finally get there, and the triple-bottom around 3600-3700 would have the right look, but this has been a long time coming. I lean hard toward the technicals and have totally stopped watching "fundamental 'news'" (ahemm..), but I have heard that the real crash starts when hikes slow/stop.
Anyhoo, your counts line up with mine and You have made some very solid bear calls since early '22. Question is, who will hold their puts through 3600-3700? OR who will put 3800s if those close? Stay Bold, SS. Best.
the_sunship
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@CuzDelux just did an update, weekly rsi is at resistance so even a few days floating up wouldn't change much at this point. I think we'll drop, but it may start slowly with some bounces first....
BuzzedLightBeer
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Hey Sun, where would you consider this idea invalid? I ask because I'm wondering if market conditions are starting to change with the idea that the Fed will soon relax their hawkish stance and become more neutral or dovish and decrease rate increases.
the_sunship
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@BuzzedLightBeer, if they start closing over the 50 ma weekly, they will probably keep going higher. that's the other map possibility -
Anyhoo, your counts line up with mine and You have made some very solid bear calls since early '22. Question is, who will hold their puts through 3600-3700? OR who will put 3800s if those close? Stay Bold, SS. Best.