V4:T2:W1_"The S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Strategy!"_Daily/4hour.

Hello everyone and welcome to my newest series of public posts being dubbed "The S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Strategy." Recently I became self-aware that I am watching too many markets which is causing expensive and often psychologically hurtful mistakes. By focusing on one instrument, The mighty S&P 500, I am hoping to make better trading decisions and compound higher returns. I have been studying S&P price action since I was 17 years old (currently 23.) At first I had included Euro and Crude to be incorporated into this series but I decided to only focus on the S&P for now. I will be trading with ETFs SPXL and SPXS . I plan on venturing out to other ETF's in the future. Any recommendations?

Analysis: Since making our major pullback, during the second month of the year, price has traded mainly sideways. During the creation of this sideways struggle price managed to form a solid low around 2530. Above we see key resistance at 2800.

Fib retracement confluence sketches a solid area of support/resistance around 2708. This 50% level should act as the mean through the duration of this pullback. Above this level and we should be considering long scalp trades. Below this level and short scalp trades only.

The end of last week certainly pushed below the 2708 level when news of the Chinese tariffs broke headlines. Next week I would be very careful opening long side positional trades below the pivotal 2708 level. One of my rules is to NEVER hold trades that are short the S&P . You would be better off getting a payday loan for addictive drugs.

Monday should tell if ES is ready to accept higher prices or if we are due to test the lows. The market will tell us and I shall not force my opinion on it. This strategy is all about trading what I see and NOT what I think.

Strategy details: Daily or 4 hour chart: watch for cross of 11 EMA (red) and 9 SMA (Orange)
Stochastic needs to confirm direction. RSI above/below 50.
Patiently enter near the trend lines and trail 7 pips behind the orange line.
Daily chart >4 hour > hourly. No trading below the hourly chart. Don't even look.

Check out the monthly chart in the comments.

Good luck everyone! Hope this series will be useful to others because it certainly will be for me. I do not do this for attention/rep/profits. I do this because I love it!


If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated!
Disclaimer: Your data may be different. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!

Symbol | Weekly Directional Bias | Correct : Incorrect counter(weekly)| Win/Loss counter (all trades)
ESM18| LONG | 0:0 | T 0:0

評論: ES traded higher today as I expected but we are still below the pivotal level. If more buying proceeds tomorrow we should close around that level. If we get below the speed lines and below that level shorts could be considered.
評論: Good thing we were not opening longs below that pivotal reversal level. Price has pulled back to the lows. Daily stochastic is neutral and RSI below 50.
This market has every intention of going lower. I do believe those lows should be tested.
評論: ES did not do much today but fill orders, psych everyone out. Price is still hanging around the lows. Short side bias preferred tomorrow.
評論: END OF WEEK: We were correct on our weekly direction of week one.
Agree with your analysis here. Remember tomorrow has an early close and no trading on Friday, plus last day of trading for the month. I expect we see the market do its best to take out both sides of everyone's stop-orders while they get ready to leave for vacation before finally choosing a direction. Name of the game is don't get trapped.
+1 回覆
TElphee Red_Ben
@Red_Ben, Good catch on the bank holiday and end of month. Gonna certainly change the dynamics of things a bit. I think your exactly right. The big boys are leaving for vacation and gonna trap as many as possible.
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