Bernard Baruch is an investment and trading legend. Often considered "the lone wolf of wallstreet". And for good reason, he did not follow the crowd. Many great men such as Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota, JP Morgan and Warren Buffet have great quotes that I have posted above my desk. Well one of my favorites is Bernard's. "Don't try to buy at bottoms and sell at the top. It can NOT be done except by LIARS". This brings me to my story on Target levels and stop losses. Last year I had a trade on JP Morgan and chase. Unfortunately I had a meeting to go to so I left the trade in my partners hands and gave him instructions, get's here sell, get's here sell. How much simpler can it be right?. Long story short the stock jumped up pre-market, but then failed to hit the target. Joe sat there watching like a deer in the headlights not understanding all the indicators and it slowly fell back down to where we lost a little. Now Joe isn't stupid, far from it. He just doesn't understand how to adapt to the market and instead was on auto drive.
This is why I want to caution you first and foremost in buying and selling on other TA's recommendations IF you do not know how to trade! Now there are some great ones out there MarcPmarkets, Excavo, Dian, all come to mind. I follow them also, I many times make their trades, but I know how to trade which means I understand how to recognize a trade that turns bad prior to the target and exit! If you can not, then you will many times end up like my partner Joe. Waiting to long for it to hit the target and then exiting at a loss. Now it wasn't Joe's fault it was mine, I left the trade.
I can not emphasize how difficult trading market corrections in is. It's boom or bust as you have seen! One day bull the next day bear for many of us. This is why I would rather sit on the sidelines and be patient, and pick up some coins that have just been crushed from the market overall. So here is ETH'.
Originally from our previous article $313 was a critical target for ETH to break to move higher. Well it did, but it also pulled back. What this tells me is most likely we have found or are close to the bottom, but the MARKET in general is not ready for a bull run yet. The last runup was a third wave in cryptos. My 10 year old grandson can make money in 3rd waves, everyone can. But 5th and 1st wave are where money is lost and many of you are finding that out first hand. This is why we batten down the hatches, and get in a good cash position. Even the best TA's have trouble determining whether we are in a 1st wave up or still correcting from the 5th wave. This is why I offer both thesis's. However I still tilt to we are correcting. (BTC just seems to not want to join the party).
But I have been watching my core holdings for a few weeks to see what they are doing. ETH is in the top 2. As it stands I have a long term target of $950-$1250 over the next year or so. This comes straight from the EW and Fibb. Nothing hidden you can see how I got there. However I also note that we could still potentially retrace down into the lower 200 level and even as low as $160. Again you can see how I got there. This brings me back to Bernard's quote. Only liars buy at the bottom and sell at the top. I have added at the $300 level and will be looking to add more if the correction continues at where around $200 I am backing up the truck. I think we should hit a nice run once we get past this market correction and weak hands are finally flipped from the market. This will allow new money to enter, and quality coins like ETH BCH DASH LTC XRP OMG NEO should start their journey higher. I am not trying to time the bottom I am simply buying into weakness.
From a fundamental perspective, what's your take on all these ICOs starting to sell off their ETH for FIAT? I mean we're gonna need to see a lot of influx of money to keep ETH afloat given these selloffs. Hard to quantify though. Haven't found any source that tracks how much ETH has actually been eaten up by ICOs.
Future POS will definitely be of huge help to keep ETH up, however just went through the whitepapers for Caspar and we're pretty far away from implementation it seems tbh.
goldbug1
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@wasserman, I just think it's a final rotation in the market where you have the initial dip (sept13th) you then get the return to norm which was the recent price run up especially in BTC, but then reality sets in and people start accumulating losses trading as we saw last week where TA after TA points were getting stopped out. This gets people gunshy and so they start going to alternates like fiats to wait out the storm. Last week I was going over many of the TA's calls for longs and I would say the majority of them were stopped out.
I know you've touched on this before, ALTs and next ALT-season. Currently liquidity is drying up and have been for a while. The upcoming forks will just make it worse. From a TA-perspective, when do think liquidity will return to these other coins? I'm thinking accumulation will start December- Q1 2018 and subsequent upswing.
goldbug1
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@wasserman, Either that or if segwit2x does not go through then, all hell could break out.
fk91
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Do you still think it's bearish ?
OR
ETH it's start of the rally ?
fk91
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Do you think in short term by the end of the year it will hit $400 plus ?
@fk91, We can have bearish moves in bull markets and bull moves in bear markets. As this is still a market rotation in my opinion I think it's just best to sit back and add to good coins that get crushed due to selloffs. I like ETH for the long term and have no issue adding here.
goldbug1
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@fk91, corrections are difficult as you get many false wave 1's as we are seeing. Money is made in wave 3 so in lieu of trying to time wave 1 as it just is not working out well, (not just me many TA's) I am just looking for beat up coins to add for the long term, and maybe even some long term trades! Nothing with stop losses. So If I want to add 100 OMG I am adding 150 OMG with the intent of trading the 50 at a later date.
mrblanc
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Great story built on a nice quote! I think everybody has been in the position where they tought their buy or sell was a good decission and afterwards it turned out they could have made more money or a better price when buying but this is really where you have to see it a bit more longer term and dont be too greedy. Example...recently sold all my BTC as I thought we were already at the tops and it would correct soon, afterwards BTC rose more than 1000 dollar...stupid action on hindsights however at that moment I already made a profit and thought at that point it was the best move. Long story short you never know what comes next you just need to action on what is in your opinion the best moment to go in or out and act from there.
Future POS will definitely be of huge help to keep ETH up, however just went through the whitepapers for Caspar and we're pretty far away from implementation it seems tbh.