aoeuaoeu
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ETH prices about to CRASH!!!

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   以太坊 / 美元
Over the past few weeks, we have seen the price of ETH go parabolic. Anytime the price goes parabolic, the price will always experience a substantial correction. The question is not whether it will crash - it definitely will crash - but when is the peak. There are several signs that this is the top.

1. Bearish Divergence on MACD and RSI
The prices are rising higher, but the histogram and the RSI fail to increase. This means the trend is losing momentum; the price just isn't increasing as fast previous upticks (when you zoom in and look at the last 20 or so candles). It could indicate that there isn't enough future buyers to sustain the same price growth. And without enough buyers, the price plummets.

2. Rising Wedge Forming
In the last day and a half, the price has been forming a rising wedge . The prices seem to be squeezed in an upward triangle (purple lines). Although the prices are rising, the resistance line is rising slower than the support line, indicating that the bulls are struggling to push the price higher since the prices are climbing slower and slower. The bears have shown strong resistance and will soon take over once the support line breaks.

3. 5 Elliott Waves completed
Uptrends tend to travel upwards in 5 waves. 3 of the waves go up (impulse wave), and 2 of the waves go down (corrective wave). Waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulse waves, while waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves. Each impulse wave can be divided into 5 subwaves. After the five waves a correction occurs, the price usually retraces between 38.2% to 61.8% of the 5 waves combined. The percentages come from Fibonacci ratios that commonly occur in nature (and in the prices).

I have drawn out the Elliott Waves , and ETH just completed or is almost done the five waves. Note that subwave 3 was extended.That means we will retrace 38.2% to 61.8% or down to the $650 to $950 range.
snapshot

We have also completed the 5 sub-subwaves within the 5 subwave.

What if this analysis is wrong?
We are never certain in trading, and I could wrong. Perhaps, Ethereum             will experience only a minuscule correction before skyrocketing to the moon. It may develop an extended fifth wave. That is why I set stop losses. However, with these signs, I think that a crash is the most probable course of action. In trading, we trade based on probability, not certainty. Most similar setups in the past have led to a crash. *cough* Bitcoin             to $20,000 *cough* Litecoin to $330 *cough*

Conclusion
A temporary top for Ethereum             is definitely near. If Ethereum             doesn't drop within the next day or so, it will eventually collaspe in the following days. The price has simply gone up too quickly too fast. It's better to not be greedy and buy back during the dips.

For daring and adventurous traders, I have outlined a short setup with the target and the stop. Please note that this is very risky as we are still in the uptrend for the time being.
評論: I think 1380 is the peak. Let's see if I'm right.
評論:
snapshot

We may not hit $950 actually. Once it gets closer, I'll do another update.
評論:
snapshot

The bulls are putting up a strong resistance, but I doubt that the price can go much higher.
評論: this is another possible wave count and the corrections are over
snapshot

wait for wave five to complete and buy during the dip
評論: The chart above is only a possibility, not a certainty. To be honest, I'm not sure of the short-term fluctuations.
評論:
snapshot

An alternative count
評論: Either way, ETH will eventually dip below the 1100s. Its just way too overextended.
評論: this would be my primary count
snapshot
評論:
snapshot

Short term reactionary wave (correction within correction) coming.
評論: I think that price is likely to go up in the short term for now.
For long term investors hold tight, the price will likely dip below 800 in a few days/weeks.
Flippening
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I have a slightly different interpretation of the RSI. It does show signs of a bearish failure swing and thus a price reversal seems imminent.
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Hey dude you called it. Congrats. I think these coins have become so predictable. Huge run up for like 5-10 days, then a drop of like 20-50% from peak. Let us know when you are thinking of buying back in! Thank you
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Helluva call so far. Where do you see the target after the recent slide?
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aoeuaoeu MonsterBuck
@MonsterBuck, Right now, almost all of the prices are being determined by bitcoin. What ETH will follow Bitcoin for the next few hours. When ETH stops following the price of Bitcoin like a few days back when it was pumping while Bitcoin was falling, I'll give more precise predictions.

I think a temporary rebounce is possible and we will soon test the 1050 levels.
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Thanks. You're right but wrong on your count. We're on the 3rd wave. Your retracement target is slightly low.
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What do you make of wave 5 being longer than wave 3 on this count of the supercycle? Perhaps we could be in 3 rather than 5?
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aoeuaoeu robinson-h
@robinson-h, In that case, we would have just completed subwave 3 of supercycle wave 3 and about to experience corrections to the $850 to $1050 range. However, it is typical to have a 5th wave thats longer than the third wave if its extended.
+1 回覆
while I think you are correct that a correction is imminent, I have a different understanding of the RSI read--but I may be wrong. I read that RSI as saying that the asset is more comfortable at this higher price than it was at the previously higher RSI point (a lower RSI means the asset is less in an overbought state, and falling toward the oversold)--this would indicate to me that the fall will not be as hard as it would have been if it were falling from the previous high all the way into oversold territory (assuming it falls starting now). So I'm expecting a correction, but not a rapid one. Seems to me that if it doesn't start correcting soon, the RSI suggests it could be gaining support for a pump higher before a huge correction ensues.
+1 回覆
aoeuaoeu atomantic
@atomantic, Yeah, the RSI is showing bullishness by bouncing around 55. I'm suggesting that 75 could be a peak. The RSI is only showing a weak sign of bearishness.
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