KRAKEN:ETHUSD   以太坊 / 美元
First of all, I don't even want to get into ETH in terms of long term. Though these may be the lowest levels you see ETH this year, I wouldn't expect to see it go to any higher highs this year. I've recounted and instead of getting the expected extended 3rd, ETH's 5 waves are done, and we are on to a primary correction. This could honestly take up to a year, meaning no new highs for ETH for the rest of 2018.

In the short term, we try to find a bottom here. ETH is approaching the .728 fib line. Naturally we should find support around this area. BUT, a harsh sell-off of Bitcoin could lead ETH DOWN TO AS LOW AS $300.
ETH is bearish as hell guys. But unfortunately, this is the cycle of the crypto market. It's happened historically several times to most older coins, and this is just the first time ETH will go through it. Parabolic growth = 70-80% contractionary periods.

So, in this particular trade, I expect ETH to go up for this C wave, but I expect the C wave to be truncated. There are many resistances in this area, and I'd only target a swing high if you were to go long here. The 2 hour stoch is showing a little bit of a need to go up.

The short is actually pretty conservative, in having faith that the bulls can hold their ground to previous supports. So have faith in indicators, if the indicators tell you it can go lower, then trust it. Overall, ETH is due for a big jump after the next fall. So I'm waiting just to see when that might be, because I want a part of it.

Good luck! Ask me any questions if you have any.

ETH climbed to the top of the channel resistance. Hope you all have been patient. There was no sign of reversal on the resistance lines, so we stayed out of the trade. If we happen to climb above this resistance (which we shouldn't), then expect rejection in that green zone, for a beautiful short, or taking of your long-profit.

It hit the green box then this happened. WTF??? What dickhead did this??
評論: ladies and gentlemen, that is a wick.

I'm very bearish on this market and haven't really been looking for long positions because it is just easier and safer to trade with trend. Here's a look at the daily chart for Ethereum, along with BTC, I expect another low to come in here before we can see an imminent uptrend to occur. I haven't quite been active in any trades with Ethereum, because I still want to get a feel for it's price action, like that I have of BTC. But I will update with what I'm seeing in the short-term and make a trade based off of that. But a short is definitely on its way with this one.

Here is the 3 hour chart. We're kind of forming a funky ascending wedge here. But I'm not sure if we can touch the top of the yellow resistance for a few reasons that the lower time frames show. We're kind of channeling here. So it's kind of hard to find a target for the next short. I will update in a few moments here on the lower time frame to see if we may be able to hold this support and climb a bit higher before we consider entering a short.

So I'm contemplating entering the short right now because we closed with a bearish divergence on the 1 hour, therefore we can draw a resistance at the top of the last two highs, I don't think it gets over that resistance. But BTC can kind of motivate it to do so if it climbs a bit higher. I'm only targeting $362 for now, but I can only think that if we hit it again, we will fall through the cracks. I'll actually try to activate the trade on this one if I do decide to enter soon. For now, everything looks bearish.
交易進行: Small position is opened. Leave more just in case we pop back up to $425.
評論: Stop loss is a loose one above $430

So here's the thing with Ethereum. I spot this descending wedge on the 10 minute RSI where the previous resistance is now support. There is also a secondary resistance line that could carry ETH to the top of white resistance around $440. Even though indicators are showing this run to be exhausted. Something is a bit fishy here.

There is a huge sell wall at $424 for ETH. I think what I'm going to do is possibly set a stop loss on my small order right behind it. And see what it does. I don't want to trap myself in a corner with ETH going up an extra $15. BTC is also in the same situation where I think it has another run up to $7k. We'll see how this goes, but I am not automatically setting a sell order at $425 anymore. I will wait and see what goes on.

Indicators do not support this count. But a bullish run with Bitcoin could lead Ethereum to gain traction and move to $438 to complete the wedge. Because we haven't dropped and we continuously test $424, I think it's possible we push up. The indicators don't necessarily support this like I said before. I've removed my shorts and am waiting for a different entry. I'd either like to short at the $438 region or short on confirmation of a drop. I don't mind the tiny loss I took, because the reward in the end is much greater. So that's why I'm looking for re-entry. And if it does fall from here, then I don't mind missing out on an extra percentage point or so by having a late entry here.

I either want more confirmation on a fall, or the price to rise in order for my to feel comfortable shorting. Right now, I'm not comfortable.
手動結束交易: I meant to close, sorry. This is not to say you can't stay in the trade, but remember, we only shorted a very small amount so far. We want to add on a breakout to $438, OR a confirmation of a fall.

Critical moment for ETH on the 30. Usually descending triangles are bearish formations. But I see bullishness in the indicators. If we fall it is possible that that is the beginning of our trade. We'll see what happens

Do you guys see now why I decided to remove my order at $425? We had been pressing $424 for so long, when we finally broke it, volume rose and we have been rallying since. I've moved my short order down to about $436, just to possible confirm the order going through.

So we are still going to manage our shorts along the way and aim for small targets, but in the end I'm targeting $230. Chart literally explains it all. If Bitcoin falls to where I'm expecting it to, then this would be just as likely. Probably the best RR you will see in a while with a higher probability trade. Trade with the trend guys, its easier and much less nerve wrecking that way.

I entered the trade at 431.97. We can't guarantee that we get a 5th wave up. 5th waves aren't always guaranteed in corrective waves. Sometimes you just get an ABC. To me, Its okay if it goes to $436 or higher. I can always add if it does. But I like this as a base position.
評論: Did not mean to include that screenshot, sorry.
評論: ETH is about to hit my $436 target with the 5th wave. I'm actually going to be pissed, because I kind of do care that I entered early. But I'm tired as hell and have 3 exams tomorrow so at the same time I kind of don't care, that's why I entered (made sure I let you all know it could still hit $436). Bitcoin still hasn't taken off yet (which i think it will), and that kind of makes me worry about how high ETH can get with a Bitcoin pump. At the same time, this trade opportunity is golden, and very soon I'm just going to go to sleep with no stop loss. Thats how much confidence I have.

Like seriously. I have so much confidence in a big market drop that I opened a $15k short on BTC when it was at $6750 and never closed it. I just wanted to let you all know that, BECAUSE if these coins take off, you will know what type of loss I'd incur. And that my confidence in this trade backs that (idiotic) decision up.

I'm pissed.
You're welcome.
交易結束:達到停損點: Spoke way too soon. Holy F^&*

ETH is extremely overbought on stoch. The Daily MACD histogram is VERY high. There are the same indications of a fall (But EVEN WORSE), NOW than their was the other day. I actually shorted ETH at $495. I expect a healthy correction here, and based on wave count, we should reach another short-term high of $540. BUT, based on indicators, we may NOT have the strength to do that, EVEN though we broke the long-term resistance. We need to see that resistance line become a support line now. If we fall back through it, then I'd begin to be a bit concerned for the bulls. We are OVERBOUGHT. So be cautious.

Small update. ETH just showing potential to go up here for another little run. Capping off at sub $520.
Any thoughts on the volume of this recent rise?
Compared to previous jumps - no blood in front and volume doesn't seem as "Boom". But this could all just be my previous bearish bias.

@ss44, Volume is definitely an issue here. Because this volume is a little fabricated. It's not true buyer's volume. It was volume created by the liquidation of short plays. Shorts were at an ATH. So when price reversed and people were forced to close their long positions, it added to the volume, thus creating that crazy spike. It wasn't because people came into the market and bought. There was no driving fundamental story that caused it either. It's very very fishy. BUT, it doesn't mean that we can't continue an uptrend to further heights. I am still overall bearish. I am more bullish in the medium-term (the next 2-3 months). But overall for 2018 I am still bearish.
"I'm Pissed" .... Can totally relate.
@ss44, hahaha it gets the best of us!
Looks like a rising wedge reversal -

@ss44, Definitely a valid count!
lol wonder how many stop losses that triggered.
@ss44, all of them. I couldn't imagine not having a stop loss and then being liquidated. That is some scary shit LOL
ss44 Eball8
@Eball8, curious how that wick got so high, I'd have thought a ton of volume in between there, but wonder if some whale just pressed the wrong button. Wanted to market sell but hit market buy instead.
@ss44, right! haha, man, it makes me not want to trade anything with a little bit of lower volume. That is so nerve racking! hahahah
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