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EuroMotif
2018年4月10日晚上10點06分

EU downturn Scenario via EW and Fibs 看空

Euro Fx/U.S. DollarFXCM

描述

EUR/USD finished a well defined 12345 impulse.
Looks to be topping in Wyckoff Distribution style.
Should result in a markdown, perhaps to 1.18 by end of May

評論

Some fine tuning of the EW and Fibs.
If correct, should resume downward trajectory very soon.
If not correct, may have to rethink a larger part of the structure.

評論

EU proceeding per plan mostly.
Current price of 1.22 will offer some support, being a local double bottom.
If we can break below (perhaps late in week) then it opens up for continuation.

While pondering the fibs and EW waves, I found a good possibility for further drop.

評論

Updated fibs and mid-term target.
Thanks to the ECB doves for giving my trade an extra push.
We might not even see the wave 4 bounce below, but if it happens, I might add more on the to retrace.

評論

Still on track long term.
Looks close to a temporary bottom.
If 1.2000 does not spring price back up, then expect a little more of a dip then a relief bounce.

評論

Forgot to add the Monthly S1 pivot also lurking at target.
I think it will have enough gravity to pull EU down that last little leg.

評論

1.9500 still looks like a nice target, but surely will bounce a bit there?
Strong support likely (for now) from the Monthly S1 and Weekly S2 range)

評論

Am in this short heavy.
Currently hoping for a bounce this week to short more!
I will watch 1.2000 but I think it will break it for a stop run, then down.
The zone I am watching:

評論

.
Give the amount of gravity working on this chart, I am thinking 1.800 might be next possible support zone that might offer a little bounce

評論

In the bigger picture, I have eliminated the ''less bearish'' count, leaving the one in dark red below, shooting for 1.120 - 1.125 range

評論

For anyone still following this idea, please see my updated idea here:
評論
dr90210
Do you have any open position?
EuroMotif
@dr90210, yes, still have about 60% of my short position open from way up high.
Have been closing bits here and there, and scalping 20-30 pip shorts.
Each scalp, I try to let 10% of that small position ride, to add to my total shorts.
Am waiting for ECB news to make a bigger decision, either close most of the position, or add and keep adding....
cI8DH
couldn't it be that EUR/USD is in a "running triangle" which means it will continue uptrend?
ronaldsaw
I have a similar count to you but just wondering why your wave 2 of the current move is a 5 wave move?
EuroMotif
@ronaldsaw, Yeah, I am a little concerned about the last wave 2 as well. Perhaps the 12345 will become an 'a', followed by b and c to make the true wave 2. But after the US econ news being mostly good and rate hike looking as good or better than before, I am thinking USD should show some strength in Q2. So I may be jumping the waves a bit....
ronaldsaw
@euromotives, As per the count, this should be wave 1 of 3 of C now but there seems to be support for EUR still which is making me re-think the count.
As for the time being, C wave is still the preferred count!
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