I still follow my long term wave count although there are several opportunities to count the current consolidation on the daily time frame. I believe that this pair is in a triangle consolidation for a wave B which will be followed by a bearish break towards parity and even lower.
The 4 hour time frame shows the structure of lesser degree to create this triangle.
For my day trade set-up call of last week see below:
Last weeks buy set-up took me in the trade and the opening gap of this week made me place stop loss at break even.
I will monitor this bullish price action to determine whether it is a new impulse or part of the more complex corrective combination which is more likely at this stage. Updates will follow, so far risk/reward is at 2/1 with no risk.
評論
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評論
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評論
TomPower
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Tim, on that latest chart it's looks like it can play with that trend line dancing up and down it, but how do you know which way it's going to go.
TimStuyts
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You mean the latest update? I'm looking for a wave C higher and then we will see at least 3 wave correction fo the bearish impulse after Brexit. Once that is in place I'll look for a sell towards 1.08. If it moves lower from here I need a clear impulse of lesser degree and will adjust but will let it go at first. However I consider the current 'flag' a wave B consolidation and therefore have a bullish bias for wave C towards 1.250. Hope that answers your question. Let me know if I understood you wrong.
TomPower
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Ok I c that 1.1250 first. I was just looking at that trend line from the bigger chart that you have superimposed on the smaller Chart , doesn't look like it has any relevance in this chart.
TimStuyts
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No is hasn't any meaning on the 15 min chart, sorry for the confusion, will select daily tf for that trend line alone next time. By the way my trend lines are only for visualization purposes.
catrionaforex
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Hi StuytsTim, thank you for your very detailed analysis of the charts. I am a new trader and they are helping me to better understand wave analysis. I picked up on one detail here during your conversation with 'stream' that there is a difference between support and resistance, and structure. My training has led me to believe they are one in the same thing? Your thoughts would be appreciated. :-)
TimStuyts
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Hello Catriona I'm glad to hear that the analyses are helping you. Support/resistance is based on where traders believe orders are placed so price should bounce from. There are several ways to determine these levels and I personally look at the zones where the major investment banks have their orders (weekly time frame). These are zones and not exact levels. However structure explains the whole dynamic of price action and if you are able to enter a trade based on structure out of a major support/resistance zone you have a high probability trade. But support and resistance is something you can only determine after the fact because price can bounce off support once or twice but there is no rational dynamic that tells you how many times it will and if it will work next time. Therefore I mentioned that I look at support but structure is leading at all time, I will therefore not buy on support but wait for structure to tell me whether or not to buy. By moving to a lower time frame you more or less can have the same entry as from support but then with context. Also structure breaks support/resistance sooner or later. I'm not saying that any other strategy than mine won't work but realize that 95% of the retail traders loose money. Trading is a serious business and you need to be dedicated and eager to study. I demand a lot of myself and my set-ups when it comes to trading and sometimes I have to let many set-ups go where other might trade it. However you will see that in the end this will pay off. So that's why among other reasons I keep repeating; keep an open mind, things change and we are there to spot that and adjust when necessary. That's why structure is such a great thing, it explains and warns us for changes where nothing else does until it already happened. Hope my view helps you understand it a bit more. Have a great day and good trading to you!
catrionaforex
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Wonderful, thank you!
stream
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i am so sorry , i posted here the wrong chart , but then forgot to post the right one . Just take a look on support , now this is the confirmation,, ..
TimStuyts
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Still your comments about a 'short' are not making sense or any comment for that matter, we also have a different view when it comes to calling something confirmed. Support/resistance is not what I trade but only use in my advantage when in line with structure. Anyway let's stop this discussion since it is going nowhere. Use my analysis in your advantage or ignore it.
stream
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its on support which you never see there is nice pin bar on daily and on weekly which is price action signal .. but you continue to not see .. for sure i dont need your help .. .. end of conversation