On the 4-hour chart, the fifth wave is forming 5 as a diagonal triangle within the first wave 1 of the higher level. Now the development of the third wave iii of 5 has ended, and the downward correction as a wave iv of 5 is forming, within which the decrease within the wave (c) of iv to the levels of 1.1903–1.1860 is expected. The level of 1.2089 is critical for this scenario.
Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 1.2089 with the targets at 1.1903–1.1860.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 1.2089 will let the pair grow to the level of 1.2230.
Trade
Scenario
Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL Entry Point 1.2044 Take Profit 1.1903, 1.1860 Stop Loss 1.2110 Key Levels 1.1860, 1.1903, 1.2089, 1.2230
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point 1.2095 Take Profit 1.2230 Stop Loss 1.2035 Key Levels 1.1860, 1.1903, 1.2089, 1.2230