This idea is a follow through on the previous 2 idea: and So this is not a new call for short it's just an update for those who are still holding the shorts from 1.1980.
The first H&S pattern had broken down on the 25th October. One day follow through to let everyone go short and the pattern was reversed. A double bottom and we rallied higher. Topped on the 27th November. Price was unable to break to new highs. This was the first sign that we might be in a flag ( Between the blue trendlines)
Everything was supporting the flag until after FOMC. A rate hike and the dollar dropped. Again : The buck dropped after the rate hike. Many said it was priced in. Maybe. But I say we have a serious problem with the dollar if the EurUsd bounced immediately after a rate hike. The dollar buyers want more than 1/4 point key interest rate raise.
So on Wednesday evening looked like the flag in EurUsd breaks out and the dollar trend continues lower. Never bet the farm on any currency: after the Wednesday convincing green candle price started to drop again.
As of today we are having a H&S pattern again. It's about to break down again...
If we significantly break below 1.1715 next week the chances are high that we tag the lower blue trendline. It can be the bottom of this 1 year long (!!) intermediate cycle. I also would like to see the RSI to get oversold at this drop.
So the target for our short position is the same: The tag of the lower trendline/ 200 EMA or 200 SMA /and the FIBO 38,2% retracement of this year's rally. It's all at the same price : 1.1441-1.1510
評論
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We are printing a reversal candle . Price is turning down from the previous high.
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Let's see if we testback the flag or break back into the support zone and test the 200 EMA...
@dannyke77, I was talking about a new high in EURUSD from yesterday - not from Sept. But give that a minute, it will be taken out soon enough. The bulls are on parade :)
dannyke77
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@lord_kinbote, well only if dxy drops lower but not so sure as the conditions are very very oversold and it made now a triple bottom. Patients is a virtue
dannyke77
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@lord_kinbote, You ready to trow in the towel on eur / dollar ? ;)
lord_kinbote
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@dannyke77, Hey buddy.. We all know the dollar has to bounce a bit. I don't trade forex, so I only watch their price action to guesstimate moves in gold.
lord_kinbote
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@dannyke77, Good morning. How do you like me now? LOL