AROD01

Ford Consolidation, Long Term Bull

NYSE:F   福特汽车公司
I am calling a short term retracement and long term Bull for Ford. I think it is currently consolidating, or building up pressure, to break out of a roll and continue it's up-trend. From the beginning of October 2017 through the end of November 2017 it consolidated/rolled between a $12.00 support and a $12.40 resistance. That is after dropping to a $10.47 low in August 2017, and then breaking into an up-trend. Two dollars ($2.00) in three months. Now, I realize that may be slow for a lot of you and a lot of Stocks (I'm not arguing that point) but that is where my long-term bullish outlook comes into play. It went $2.00 in three months and began a forty cent ($.40) consolidation/roll. It broke out of that on high volume on November 29, 2017 (the big green candlestick--a thirty cent day which is quite a move for Ford considering most of it's single day moves seem to be five to ten cents ) and within three days reached $12.75 (the wick on December 04, 2017 actually had a high of $12.81). Since then it has dropped to $12.40 (old resistance becoming new support) and bounced back to $12.75. The past couple of days have closed down forming a couple of red/bearish candles. That is why short term I am calling a consolidation and retracement down to $12.40. If it were a regular trading week I would call 3-5 trading days (that's how long it took to retrace from $12.40 down to $12.00 during October and November 2017) to reach $12.40; but I'm not expecting too much high volume this week due to Christmas, and also New Years approaching. Sure, the Market will still be open; but like any holiday there will be a lot of people taking time off. After it hits $12.40 I think it will bounce back to at least $12.75. On Oct 10 and Nov 01-03 Ford hit $12.40 resistance; and multiple times throughout both months it hit $12.00 support before breaking above resistance on Nov 29 as previously mentioned. After it breaks $12.75 I think it will continue it's up-trend before once again consolidating somewhere.

Should you do a bearish play? I don't think so, unless you are good at spreads or some other really short term (weekly/daily) strategy. If it repeats the Oct-Nov trend it will hit support within a couple days. I'm not even sure of a short term bull play. I think a mid (1-5 months) to long term (5 months + ) bull play is the best shot.

I am an amateur Stock and Options trader. I am not licensed, certified, or employed by anyone or any institution to give financial advice. I have shares of Ford I am planning on keeping for long term to continue earning dividends. I am considering a mid to long term Call Option, but probably won't buy it until and unless Ford breaks $12.75 and continues up. Remember, Ford moved $2.00 in three months and with the Bull Market we are in it could repeat that. For long term Option play consider historic resistance has been around $16-$17 (give or take 50 cents). Examples of that on a long term line chart are May 2002, January 2004, July-October 2013, July 2014, and a 15 year high (2002 to present) of $18.65 in January 2011. $10.00/$9.00ish seems to be support since 2009 on a line chart and Ford came close to hitting that in August 2017; but all that is another chart for another time.
Your support / resistance lines are holding up nicely! Well drawn. Regarding your note "Should you do a bearish play? I don't think so, unless you are good at spreads" Good job waiting. PLUS, Ford is historically very bad with spreads. RARELY has any good premium, at all..

Keep an eye on that upcoming support!
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