I am calling a short term retracement and long term Bull for Ford. I think it is currently consolidating, or building up pressure, to break out of a roll and continue it's up-trend. From the beginning of October 2017 through the end of November 2017 it consolidated/rolled between a $12.00 support and a $12.40 resistance. That is after dropping to a $10.47 low in August 2017, and then breaking into an up-trend. Two dollars ($2.00) in three months. Now, I realize that may be slow for a lot of you and a lot of Stocks (I'm not arguing that point) but that is where my long-term bullish
outlook comes into play. It went $2.00 in three months and began a forty cent ($.40) consolidation/roll. It broke out of that on high volume
on November 29, 2017 (the big green candlestick--a thirty cent day which is quite a move for Ford considering most of it's single day moves seem to be five to ten cents ) and within three days reached $12.75 (the wick on December 04, 2017 actually had a high of $12.81). Since then it has dropped to $12.40 (old resistance becoming new support) and bounced back to $12.75. The past couple of days have closed down forming a couple of red/bearish candles. That is why short term I am calling a consolidation and retracement down to $12.40. If it were a regular trading week I would call 3-5 trading days (that's how long it took to retrace from $12.40 down to $12.00 during October and November 2017) to reach $12.40; but I'm not expecting too much high volume
this week due to Christmas, and also New Years approaching. Sure, the Market will still be open; but like any holiday there will be a lot of people taking time off. After it hits $12.40 I think it will bounce back to at least $12.75. On Oct 10 and Nov 01-03 Ford hit $12.40 resistance; and multiple times throughout both months it hit $12.00 support before breaking above resistance on Nov 29 as previously mentioned. After it breaks $12.75 I think it will continue it's up-trend before once again consolidating somewhere.
Should you do a bearish
play? I don't think so, unless you are good at spreads or some other really short term (weekly/daily) strategy. If it repeats the Oct-Nov trend it will hit support within a couple days. I'm not even sure of a short term bull play. I think a mid (1-5 months) to long term (5 months + ) bull play is the best shot.
I am an amateur Stock and Options trader. I am not licensed, certified, or employed by anyone or any institution to give financial advice. I have shares of Ford I am planning on keeping for long term to continue earning dividends. I am considering a mid to long term Call Option, but probably won't buy it until and unless Ford breaks $12.75 and continues up. Remember, Ford moved $2.00 in three months and with the Bull Market we are in it could repeat that. For long term Option play consider historic resistance has been around $16-$17 (give or take 50 cents). Examples of that on a long term line chart are May 2002, January 2004, July-October 2013, July 2014, and a 15 year high (2002 to present) of $18.65 in January 2011. $10.00/$9.00ish seems to be support since 2009 on a line chart and Ford came close to hitting that in August 2017; but all that is another chart for another time.