Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Very important day tomorrow. If we trade below 24000, this means we saw leg 1 from 24749 down to 24100 and leg 2 could lead us to 23500 or lower. Until we have clearly broken below 24000, I remain neutral but hopeful we can finally go lower again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 23000 - 24750
bull case: Bulls need to stay above 24000 or risk a sell-off down to 23700ish. No matter how you try to draw the bull trend lines, they are all broken now but bears need lower lows below 23690 to confirm it. Daily ema is around 24100 and it has been support for 3 weeks and that is the reason I remain neutral for now.
Invalidation is below 24270.
bear case: Bears need to break below the daily ema and close below. Only then can we go lower. It’s good for the bears that they printed a lower high below 24400 but we are still too high for bulls to give up on BTFD.
Invalidation is above 24400.
short term: Neutral. If we stay below 24400, we have a shot at breaking down but 24000ish is support until proven otherwise. The selling today was not strong and the chart is rather neutral. Bears have only set up a potential structure which could break down but you have to wait for confirmation before betting on it.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
trade of the day: Scalping between 24250 - 24300 which was clear support & resistance for 4h after EU open. The bear breakdown was a surprise and not obvious to trade.
comment: Very important day tomorrow. If we trade below 24000, this means we saw leg 1 from 24749 down to 24100 and leg 2 could lead us to 23500 or lower. Until we have clearly broken below 24000, I remain neutral but hopeful we can finally go lower again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 23000 - 24750
bull case: Bulls need to stay above 24000 or risk a sell-off down to 23700ish. No matter how you try to draw the bull trend lines, they are all broken now but bears need lower lows below 23690 to confirm it. Daily ema is around 24100 and it has been support for 3 weeks and that is the reason I remain neutral for now.
Invalidation is below 24270.
bear case: Bears need to break below the daily ema and close below. Only then can we go lower. It’s good for the bears that they printed a lower high below 24400 but we are still too high for bulls to give up on BTFD.
Invalidation is above 24400.
short term: Neutral. If we stay below 24400, we have a shot at breaking down but 24000ish is support until proven otherwise. The selling today was not strong and the chart is rather neutral. Bears have only set up a potential structure which could break down but you have to wait for confirmation before betting on it.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
trade of the day: Scalping between 24250 - 24300 which was clear support & resistance for 4h after EU open. The bear breakdown was a surprise and not obvious to trade.
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