I spent a long time analyzing this pair, contrasting views with my colleague Nick Coulby, who specializes in Elliott Wave analysis, and working on my own time at mode analysis of this pair, as well as adding the result of insightful discussions held at Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom, regarding this topping pattern, as well as the patterns in the gold chart, and it's Elliott Wave analysis.
All this rich information and length analytical process leads me to conclude the following: The uptrend isn't done, and while we see gold rallying, this pair will correct down offering a potentially interesting short setup, before lending us a perfect position trade on the long side if it meets my expectations. Ultimately the structure in gold is corrective, and the faith of the Aussie dollar's strength is connected to it, as well as to other dollar linked commodities (iron ore, copper), and subjected to stronger easing biases, vs those of the United Kingdom's BOE.
In this regard, on the subject of fundamental analysis, we can see that the bias it favors is on the long side, but the timing for trading with it wouldn't position us favorably in this trade.
I'll be looking for shorts as soon as gold starts rallying again, waiting for a retest of the top area, since I think we're seeing a corrective X wave flat pattern with limited downside. This will lead to new highs to complete the monthly uptrend signal target which will possibly form a new zigzag with a wedge C wave like we have observed before in this pair. This new wedge C wave will be the top of this formation offering an ideal short trade of larger implications, which is what I'm after.
Conclusion is: If this model holds, and I think it's highly probable that it will, we will see a range bound situation, leading to a new high in a sharp advance, after which we will probably observe a terminal wedge pattern, which will be our cue for the interesting short setup, which should retrace the whole structure, and lead to a perfect long entry to rejoin the larger quarterly uptrend.
I will continue to update this publication, since I think it has great potential and value, both as a journal, and as a testament of both Tradingview.com's and Tim West's 'time at mode' model's power.
Good luck, Ivan.
交易結束：目標達成
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評論
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Time of the main uptrend is running out this week!!!!!!
評論
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(last weekly one) Quarterly still has time left.
評論
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Extra food for thought, the previous monthly/quarterly resistance has served as support for the swings.
評論
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Free fall mode on.
評論
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We might test the quarterly mode if we cross the weekly mode down. 1.833
Yeah these trending pairs work like a charm with time at mode.
IvanLabrie
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Big picture view:
Something's ending very soon.
I anticipate a large gold rally.
IvanLabrie
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You can place limit buys with the following parameters to profit from this range:
Entry: 2.03511
SL 2.01751
TP 2.05271
Adjust these values to your broker's feed and factor in the spread if possible.
IvanLabrie
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Nick_C_
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Looks great, will be sweet to follow its updated progression
Nick_C_
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Holy spot on
Nickmail
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very good analysis. i am on the same way
IvanLabrie
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This is probably the top...I'll watch it carefully, might give us a great short soon, or a retracement to go long again (I doubt that considering the GBPUSD chart).
IvanLabrie
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Extreme target reached!
I'll monitor, I think the trend might have some room but needs to correct first.