GBP/USD: Tech outlook...

FX:GBPUSD   英鎊 / 美元
146 0 7
Weekly gain/loss: + 227 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.2390

Following a two-week slide, renewed buying interest came in from a low of 1.2109 last week. Not only did this momentum form a sizeable weekly bullish engulfing candle, it also lifted the pair above the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.2390. While this is considered bullish , it might be worth noting that weekly price also clipped the underside of a weekly supply area at 1.2569-1.2404.

In conjunction with the weekly timeframe , daily action shows that price shook hands with a daily supply zone at 1.2471-1.2382 going into the week’s end. Considering that this barrier holds a daily resistance line penciled in at 1.2430 and is planted within the boundaries of the above said weekly supply, the bulls may find it a challenge to break through here this week.

Swinging across to the H4 timeframe, we can see that cable settled for the week around the 1.24 handle which boasts additional resistance from the H4 61.8% Fib resistance at 1.2393 taken from the high 1.2569. Also noteworthy here is the closing candle: a H4 bearish selling wick. This – coupled with the aforementioned higher-timeframe structures currently in play could be enough to send the unit lower today/this week.

Our suggestions: While our team is firmly bearish this market right now, selling into March’s opening level at 1.2378 is not something we’d feel comfortable with. Should a H4 bearish close print beyond this monthly level, we would then be relatively content on shorting any retest seen to the underside of the 1.24/1.2378 region, targeting January’s opening line at 1.2390, followed closely by the 1.23 handle.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Evans speaks at 5.10pm and President Trump takes the stage at 11.30pm GMT             .

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for price to engulf 1.2378 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (stop loss: ideally beyond 1.24).
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