GBTC PREMIUM IS GREATEST WHEN BTC PRICE IS RIPPING AND GBTC PREMIUM IS LOWEST WHEN BTC PRICE IS TANKING. GBTC TAKES THE SENTIMENT SHIFTS IN EUPHORIA AND DESPAIR AND EXACERBATES THEM, AS IT REPRESENTS A LESS SOPHISTICATED SECTION OF THE MARKET WITH LESS INVESTMENT RESOURCES. IF ONE BUYS ON A BTC PRICE DIP WHERE THE GBTC PREMIUM TO NET ASSET VALUE CLOSE TO 30%, THE EUPHORIA THAT IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW WILL SERVE AS A STRONG TAIL WIND IN THE FORM OF A WIDENING PREMIUM AS THE UNDERLYING PRICE INCREASES. MAY BE EVEN BETTER TO BUY GBTC THAN BTC ON DIPS DESPITE ABSURD PREMIUM, PARTICULARLY IF THERE IS NO BITCOIN ETF IN THE CARDS FOR THE NEAR FUTURE. ASSUMING DISCOUNT TO NET ASSET VALUE IS UNLIKELY AND 100% PREMIUM TO NET ASSET VALUE IS POSSIBLE, RISK/REWARD FAVORS BUYING AT UNDER 30% PREMIUM TO NET ASSET VALUE
評論:
Change in the tides... Unsophisticated retail traders who use GBTC as their bitcoin investment vehicle seem to be adjusting to the wild swings in Bitcoin. Large movements in bitcoin price seem to have less of an effect on premium to Net Asset Value shifts in GBTC, than they once did. This seems bullish as it may be indicative of a growing volatility tolerance to newcomers in the space. Premium almost always above 50% now which is an absurdity for any investment product. GBTC not a viable investment vehicle for cryptocurrency. Recommendation: Buy Bitcoin, put it on a Trezor and forget about it for the next 5 years. I am confident in this recommendation. Price target: +$50k