On Dec 7, 2018 I posted on Seeking Alpha"
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I said I had takens some sizeable positions in ugld, uslv, jnug -- bc it looked like a short term rally was imminent. And that I hoped it would turn into an intermediate term rally as they approached their breakout territories -- which to me means going above the downtrend channels dating back to the 2011 highs.
Well today, the first of those downtrend channels has been breached on the upside -- on the chart of GDXJ. If it can follow thru on this, that would mean a breakout above the downtrend GDXJ has been in since the 2011 high. And it likely means the long awaited bear market in PM's is over and the next leg of the bull market has started.
GDX has not penetrated its downtrend channel yet -- but it is not far behind. Ditto for Gold and Silver and SIL. Sil is quite a ways from the top of its down trend channel, but it is close to breaking above a shorter term downtrend channel - which should provide some impetus to it.
I would expect that the other PMs" I mentioned will play catch up to GDXJ and break out also. But if they don't then appropriate stops should be placed.
I list below several charts that show what I am basing my opinions on. Please disregard the messy looking lines at the right of the weekly charts. They are shorter term trend channels that mess up a weekly chart. Look to the right for the green box and you will see the last price for the symbol.
GDXJ WEEKLY DTC BACK TO 2011
But I will go thru one of their uses here.
Back in the big PM rally in 2016, Trend channels could have been used to provide an exit point pretty much right at the top of the big runup in GDXJ. Here is a 3 hour chart for that entire runup.
The top of the trend channel shown was drawn to the tops of legs 1 and 3, and the bottom of the channel was drawn to the bottom of the beginning of leg 1 and parallel to the top channel line.
Notice how that bottom channel line, was EXACTLY where the corrective leg 4 turned around and went back up into leg 5. This could have been used as an opportunity to add to your position, or to initiate a position if you missed the initial move.
Also notice how that bottom trend channel line provided an excellent exit point at around 50 in mid to late Aug 2016 -- about 3 points off the top - after a very big runup..
To me, this is very impressive.
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Today's move above the top of the long term down trend channel could be used to initiate a or add to a position in GDXJ. A move up from here, followed by a pullback to the top of the downtrend channel would not be unusual -- but not necessary.