Hi friends! Welcome to this analysis of the GLD — the Exhange Traded Fund, that tracks the movement of gold! In front of you, I have the weekly chart, so, this is a bit of a longer term view, to determine where gold may be heading in 2018 and 2019. Looking at the chart, we can see that GLD has formed a large symmetrical triangle (pink,) which it has been trading in for well over a year. As you can see, price action is approaching the apex of the triangle, and GLD will be forced to breakout or breakdown relatively soon. Looking at the data on the chart, we can see several things that support the argument for a bullish continuation higher. Since the beginning of 2017, we have been in an uptrend — producing a series of higher highs and higher lows. If that trend is going to continue, we should expect to see another higher high, which would require a bullish breakout above the symmetrical triangle. Additionally, we can see that GLD is now trading above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, which are producing a bullish crossover at the moment (Golden Cross.) Looking at the MACD, we can see that a bullish crossover has also occurred, indicating buy-side momentum, which is confirmed by the series of green volume bars on the chart. Now, I would like to draw your attention to the space between the 38.2% retracement level and 23.6% retracement level. Notice how little resistance there is inside of that area. You can see on the far left of the chart, gold just collapsed through this area, so there isn't going to be much to slow it down, if we start moving into it again. This presents an very attractive setup, for rapid acceleration to the upside. If GLD can breakout above the 38.2% retrace (around $130.70,) gold could experience an explosive move higher. Based on the overall picture of this chart, I think GLD will most likely be challenging the highs, within the next few years. If a breakout from the topside of the triangle materializes, look for GLD move higher to produce a higher high, somewhere near the 38.2% retrace. If GLD heads lower, and breaks the bottom of the triangle, support will initially be found at the 50 and 200 EMAs. This has been your friendly market legend — MPC! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
I'm a month late but this is an excellent analysis. Gold is now even closer to the apex and continues to look more likely to breakout up than down. I've been buying otm GLD calls basically as puts on the financial system in general. I'm picturing 20 bankers on a deserted island, starving to death, eyeballing each other over to decide who to eat first (yes, a good start, I know). Suddenly they see a rescue helicopter. They stop eyeballing each other, kinda, and begin exchanging handshakes and congratulations. But wait, it's not stopping! Instead it drops a package and flies off. They huddle around it an open it. There's a note that simply reads "LOL - love, Satoshi" Inside the box is a single can of Spam. Everyone hates Spam when times are good. But when times are really bad, people will tear each other part to get their hands on some. Gold is like Spam, and the 2008 panic was a preview of the next one. Although my Gold=Spam thesis is air-tight, this technical analysis makes me feel even more confident. Nice work.